MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Venezuela’s Capriles with a fair chance of winning the “mother of all political battles”
With less than three weeks for the “mother of all political battles” in Venezuela but that will have repercussions in the rest of the continent, the latest public opinion polls are indicating that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles is leading with 52% vote intention while Hugo Chavez has 48%. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesInterestingly, I read yesterday on a very mainstream US newspaper, the Christian Science Monitor, that the Capriles campaign had just been hit by accusations of corruption supported by a video that shows an important Capriles aide taking money from a suspicious source. The CSM added that this was just the latest blow to a campaign that, from the beginning, seems to have but slim chances of winning the election.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 06:07 am - Link - Report abuse 0**************************************
“According to Reuters, ”Polls are historically controversial in Venezuela“, pointing out that ”Venezuelan pollsters - who range from a former Chavez minister to an openly pro-opposition figure - also tend to double as political analysts, offering partisan opinions in state media or opposition-linked newspapers.“[77] In addition, it said that ”As in previous elections, a proliferation of little-known public opinion firms with no discernable track record have emerged from obscurity promoting polls that appear to openly favor one candidate or the other.“[77] In June 2012 most pollsters showed Capriles behind by at least 15 percentage points, and intention to vote for Chávez slowly increasing since the end of 2011. One firm, Hinterlaces, was accused by Capriles of publishing ”bogus polls“.[77] The Chavez campaign accused Datanalisis and Consultores 21 of inventing polls to support opposition plans to claim fraud in the event of defeat.[77]”
“Although the poll results vary widely, most of the variation is by pollster; results from individual pollsters are quite stable over time.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2012#Opinion_polling
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Sep 20th, 2012 - 10:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0Cala a boca, portuga.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 11:21 am - Link - Report abuse 0“An end to ‘assistancism’” is the rallying call.”
Sep 20th, 2012 - 11:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0That will be RGland stuffed then....
But we just know that Dead Man Walking Chavez will get his 'helpers' out to intimidate the weak and feeble minded into voting for him.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 12:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Is it now confirmed that Chavez is terminal or is that speculation?
Sep 20th, 2012 - 01:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Will Chavez go along with the result,
Sep 20th, 2012 - 01:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Will he go to war,
Will his trusty companion CFK ride to his aid,
Will Mercosur come to help him,
Will the Calvary turn up. with the mighty OAS,
Or will he go quietly, and the world forget him.
mmmmm
A capriles victory is good news for Mercosur (Brasil) - they get Venezuela with no Chavez - win-win.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 01:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Chavez is a cheater, we have seen this recently.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 02:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0He won't lose, he doesn't want to leave. He will abuse his powers to win, if he has to.
Now if I was a betting man, I'd stake my house on a result that maintains Chavez in power.... Opinion polls in Venezuela are not worth the paper they were bought on!
Sep 20th, 2012 - 02:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It will be very interesting to see the BS that Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay give to the legality of this election. We can all agree that Hugo will not go out without a fight, thus further proving that democracy doesn't exist in Venezuela. Even with this blatant proof, the rest of Mercosur will rally behind Hugo to say that he was democratically elected, while all along Paraguay remains “suspended” because it “vilolated” its democratic process!! Talk about making Mercosur into worthless bloc.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 03:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If Capriles wins, no more arguments by Paraguay, etc., etc. Regardless, I believe that Chavez still has an edge.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 03:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 012 ProRG_Aregentinean
Sep 20th, 2012 - 03:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“I believe that Chavez still has an edge.”
I agree, it's on the knives of his 'supporters' much like La Camping-it-up in your beloved country.
I would like to see one or two 'edges' shoved in his gut and twisted.
But heh, I'm a fun sort of guy!
“the two ladies, host Dilma Rousseff and prima-dona Cristina Fernandez warned the Caribbean leader about playing with the results of the election.”
Sep 20th, 2012 - 04:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don't know about Rousseff but in my humble opinion, I don't think we will hear a peep out of CFK about any irregularities in the election results.
Realistic analysts in the U.S. count on a win of Chavez. The mainstream of U.S. “foreign policy community” (Foundations, Councils, Institute) are wary of the true geopolitical interest towards Latin America evidenced by the “Latin hands” with emotional ties to AIPAC ,which aims to wedge Israel interests into Latin America as “special partner” of the U.S.: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Otto Reich, Elliot Abrams - and logically their special interest in the candidacy of one of “their own” - Capriles...
Sep 20th, 2012 - 04:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I can't see Chavez losing this by whatever means - but we can but hope. $170bn is a ridiculous amount for a nation the size of Venezuela to spend on foreign vanity and geopolitical projects. He's a buffoon but he's their choice so let them get on with it.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 05:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 013 ChrisR (#) No knives here. The fact is that Chavez has brought improvement to the lives of many in Venezuela. Win or loose, it will be advantageous to reflect and debate on the results. Particularly if Chavez wins. The question that should be asked then is, why does Hugo Chavez keep winning elections one after another?
Sep 20th, 2012 - 06:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Hugo wins elections because he pays people to vote for him; either with social programs or outright buying the vote. Also he has persecuted the opposition, throwing many in jail or simply scaring them to not challenge his power. This is classic in any tyranny, from the far left and right (Paraguay during its dictatorship is a case in point). Hitler 'won' his election. So did Stalin. When the government has amassed the amount of power as Hugo has, then there is no longer a democracy. The USA is headed in this direction as well; I doubt that Obama will become a dictator, yet the country has become a police state; thus I moved to Paraguay.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 07:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Prog American - I don't really care if you support socialism or not, but tyranny is not good for any country and you should recognize when a leader has become a tyrant. It doesn't matter if the tyrant to the left like Hugo or to the right like Pinochet, both are tyrants and both are unacceptable.
“why does Hugo Chavez keep winning elections one after another?” Because he buys votes. He promises lots of free stuff to the people living in abject poverty. I think the real question is this - Are policies that give free stuff to the people living in abject poverty sustainable in the long term? A smart leader would be encouraging organic domestic growth and foreign investment to provide an economic base that can be sustained. Have a good one comrade.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 07:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 018 BAMF
Sep 20th, 2012 - 08:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Well said.
H.Capriles is only “” cony nominee “”.
Sep 20th, 2012 - 08:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 017 ProRG_Aregentinean
Sep 20th, 2012 - 09:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I think those posters in 18, 19 & 20 have covered my intended reply.
#8 Condorito
Sep 21st, 2012 - 01:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0It's actually terrible news for Mercosur. Chávez is quite the Latin Americanist. I doubt this is Capriles's case, though. I bet he would try to orient both his economic and foreign policy towards the US and away from South America.
Forgetit,
Sep 21st, 2012 - 02:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0He is certainly pan-American, but if Brazil wants to be at the heart of a strong Mercosur , Chavez’s international meddling cannot be good.
I am sure you are right about Capriles, but a more open market Venezuela wouldn’t be bad for Mercosur.
Forgetit,
Sep 21st, 2012 - 03:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Being more oriented to the economic policy of the USA is a huge benefit to a country. Remember that the USA is still the largest consumer in the world, so having your products available to that market is crucial for development. Now the USA's foreign policy is crap, so it may not be worth the benefit of the american market. Also with both republicans and democrats moving towards socialism/totalitarianism, the benefits of the economic policy may not last much longer.
Anyway you look at it, Hugo Chavez's socialistic model has been an utter failure. I know nothing about Capriles and his economic policies, but you can't get much worse than Hugo Chavez.
This is clearly an example of right wing wishful thinking, everything about the tone of the article (“prima-dona Cristina” etc) shows the bias, The truth is the wheels are coming off the Capriles campaign, buth because of the corruption scandal already mentioned but also because of the revelation of secret neoliberal plans which have split the opposition itself with more principled elements abandoning or being expelled from the Capriles coalition
Sep 25th, 2012 - 01:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0Commenting for this story is now closed.
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