Thursday, November 15th 2012 - 18:44 UTC

BRIC miracle largely over; mature economies take the lead, says US Conference Board

The catch-up boom in China, India and Brazil is largely over and will be followed by a drastic slowdown over the next decade, according to a report by America's top forecasting body.

China's double-digit expansion rates will soon be a 'romantic memory'

The US Conference Board's global economic outlook has called into question the 'BRIC' miracle (Brazil, Russia, India, China), arguing that the 'low-hanging fruit' from cheap labour and imported technology has already been picked.

The report said that China's double-digit expansion rates will soon be a 'romantic memory'. It said that growth will fall to 6.9% next year, then to 5.5% from 2014 to 2018, and 3.7% from 2019 to 2025 as the aging crisis hits and investment returns go into 'rapid decline'.

Growth in India, where the reform agenda has been 'largely derailed', will fall to 4.7% by 2018, and then to 3.9%, the report said.

“As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive 'catch-up' growth, the structural 'speed limits' of their economies are likely to decline,” the Board said.

“Mature economies are still healing the scars of the 2008-2009 crisis. But unlike in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets did not pick up the slack in 2012, and won't do so in 2013,” it said.

It said that Germany will outperform Italy and France massively over the next five years, implying a bitter conflict within EMU over control of the policy levers.

The report says that global growth dropped to almost 3% in 2012, which indicates that about a half a percentage point has been shaved off the long-term trend since the crisis emerged. Uncertainty across the regions: from the post-election ‘fiscal cliff’ question in the US to the Chinese leadership transition and reforms in the Euro Area, will continue to have global impacts in sluggish trade and tepid foreign direct investment.

Across the advanced economies, the Outlook predicts 1.3% growth in 2013, compared to 1.2% in 2012. The slight up-tick is largely due to the Euro Area, which is expected to return to very slow growth of 0.2% after the 0.6% contraction in 2012. US growth is expected to fall from 2.1% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2013.

In the medium-term, the Conference outlook expects the US and other advanced economies to go some ways toward closing large output gaps – that is, the difference between current output and the level of output an economy can produce in a non-inflationary way, given the size of its labour force and its potential to invest in and create technological progress.

The current output gap is a result of weak demand due to the 2008-2009 crisis. This development should allow the US to average 2.3% annual growth during 2013-2018 before falling to 2.0% in 2019-2025. In the same two periods, Japan is expected to grow at 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
 

7 comments Feed

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1 Ayayay (#) Nov 15th, 2012 - 07:17 pm Report abuse
CEOs @ WSJ conference: Where are you increasing investment & hiring the most? US 53%, Asia 36%, Latin Am 7%, Europe only 2%, Africa 2% (twitter.com/davidmwessel/status/268349121067368449)
2 St.John (#) Nov 16th, 2012 - 05:07 am Report abuse
Sure, but e.g. 7% and 2% of how much.

100% of 1 is 2; 2% of 3 000 000 000 000 is 60 000 000 000
3 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 16th, 2012 - 08:19 pm Report abuse
Western propaganda now promises that we will catch up with and overtake the Chinese, one day =)
4 Ayayay (#) Nov 16th, 2012 - 11:51 pm Report abuse
@2 ceocouncil.wsj.com/
All Ceos polled anonymously.
Includes a list of members.
5 DanyBerger (#) Nov 17th, 2012 - 12:39 pm Report abuse
Well that’s it these people just know the future...

But I am still confident on my own prediction...

China will take over US economy in 5 years and US will drop to second place.
India will be the third economy and Brazil will become fifth economy.

Countries like UK, France, Italy will be disputing the number 10 position and others will fall into the top 20.

China
US
India
Japan
Germany
Brazil
Russia
Mexico
South Korea
UK/France/Italy
6 Ayayay (#) Nov 18th, 2012 - 11:09 pm Report abuse
@5, where is your guess for Argentina in five years?
Per person income
7 DanyBerger (#) Nov 19th, 2012 - 08:57 am Report abuse
@Ayayay

Do you mean for “Per person income” salaries or the wrong definition for “GDP per capita”?

Because they are 2 different things.

Anyway both will continue to rise despite what “Gurus” say.

The GDP per capita will be close to 24/25k USD I guess.

You saw first in the DB economy channel.

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