MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

IMF keeps Argentina’s growth outlook at 4% for 2026 and 2027 amid fragile global balance

For Argentina, the IMF’s projections place the country above both global growth and regional peers

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed its projections for Argentina’s economy, forecasting growth of 4% in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from its previous estimates published in October. The figures appear in the latest update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), presented on Monday in Brussels.

According to the IMF, the global economy remains on a “firm” growth path, although one shaped by opposing forces. The Fund projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, broadly in line with 2025 outcomes. Beneath that apparent stability, however, lie significant divergences driven by technology investment, trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty.

“The current equilibrium reflects the positive impulse from technology-related investment and private sector adaptation, offset by the negative effects of protectionist policies and uncertainty in global trade,” the IMF notes in the report.

Argentina above global and regional averages

For Argentina, the IMF’s projections place the country above both global growth and regional peers. While world output is expected to expand just above 3%, and Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, Argentina’s outlook remains stronger.

Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is expected to slow from 2.5% growth in 2025 to 1.6% in 2026, before rebounding to 2.3% in 2027. Mexico’s economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, following a modest 0.6% expansion last year.

Within a comparative table covering 30 selected economies, Argentina would rank as the 11th fastest-growing economy in 2026. The list is led by India (6.4%), followed by the Philippines (5.6%), Indonesia (5.1%), Egypt (4.7%), China and Saudi Arabia (both 4.5%), Nigeria and Kazakhstan (4.0%), Malaysia (4.3%) and Türkiye (4.2%).

Global drivers and counterweights

The IMF identifies technology investment, particularly linked to artificial intelligence, as the main engine sustaining global growth. This trend is especially pronounced in the United States and parts of Asia, helping to cushion the impact of trade tensions and political uncertainty.

At the same time, the Fund warns that the global environment remains fragile. Although trade tensions have eased somewhat since late 2025, disputes persist — notably the recent disagreement between the United States and China over semiconductor exports and strategic minerals. That standoff was temporarily defused through a truce that reduced bilateral tariffs and postponed new restrictions until November.

In terms of monetary policy, the IMF expects interest rates to continue declining in the United States, remain broadly stable in the euro zone, and rise gradually in Japan. Fiscal policy is projected to remain expansionary in major economies such as Germany, Japan and the US, providing short-term support to growth.

Oil prices and implications for Argentina

One of the less favorable signals for Argentina comes from the IMF’s outlook on energy prices. After falling 14.2% last year, the average price of oil is projected to decline a further 8.5% in 2026, before recovering marginally by 0.1% in 2027.

This trend represents bad news for Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation, a key pillar of the country’s medium-term growth strategy and export potential. Lower oil prices could weigh on investment decisions, export revenues and fiscal expectations linked to the energy sector, according to analysts cited by local outlets such as Infobae and La Nación.

Inflation, risks and fiscal concerns

The WEO does not provide country-by-country inflation forecasts, but it projects inflation in advanced economies to slow from 2.5% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. For emerging and developing economies, inflation is expected at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that risks remain tilted to the downside. These include the possibility of renewed trade tensions, new tariffs or restrictions on critical inputs such as rare earths, which could disrupt supply chains and push prices higher.

Political and geopolitical risks are also highlighted, ranging from ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to domestic political instability in countries facing major electoral cycles.

Another recurring concern in IMF assessments is the high level of fiscal deficits and public debt, particularly in economies issuing reserve currencies, such as the United States. According to the Fund, this could undermine fiscal sustainability, raise financing costs and pose broader risks to global financial stability.

In that complex international backdrop, Argentina’s growth projections stand out positively — but the IMF’s broader message underscores that sustaining that trajectory will depend on navigating volatile external conditions, energy price swings and persistent global uncertainty.