MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Gore, Bush?, Bush, Gore?

Although it may be days before the United States presidential deadlock is cleared, the potential impact in Latinamerican and particularly Mercosur, of the next administration can be considered.

If George Bush Jr. finally succeeds, a more pro business, less government interference atmosphere is expected, which means the Congressional fast track to advance in the Free Trade Association of the Americas, FTAA, negotiations, blocked during the Clinton administration, will get a boost. However this will much depend on the new Congress which even with a Republican majority in both Houses, is almost split even.

Besides, the income tax reduction promised by Bush will necessarily have an impact in interest rates, particularly with the highest oil prices in a decade and when the US economy is experiencing its longest prosperity period in history. Interest rates are vital for capital short Mercosur members.

If Al Gore becomes the next White House full time resident, he will be highly indebted to the trade unions, particularly the United Auto Workers that delivered Michigan, who are concerned about keeping jobs in the US, which is not a good omen for the stalled FTAA negotiations.

On the other hand, a more prudent Gore fiscal policy, investing the US budget surplus in buying public debt, should help to keep interest rates calm, --hopefully low-- and ensure a soft landing for the US economy.

However contrary to a Bush administration, with family connections in the oil and pharmaceutical industries, and several Spanish speaking members of Mexican origin, a Gore government will have trouble finding a balance between helping to alleviate US foreign oil dependency and his commitment to environmental policies. This is extensive both at home in the US and overseas.

Regarding democracy, human rights and combating drugs, (the Colombia plan) both still hopefuls, have similar standing policies.