MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

A straining scenario

The very delicate financial situation facing Argentina is straining the political system which could lead to a similar US Congress situation with a convergence of two main blocks, “Conservatives” and “Liberals”, in spite of party lines.

Conservatives would be those who ensure government a working majority in Congress, and Liberals, those who openly oppose the current economic policies started under former president Carlos Menem, but which seem inevitable in the current world equation.

A ongoing debate in the ruling coalition of President De la Rúa that has practically neutralized his government since taking office in December 1999. Actually some Argentine political observers indicate that the main partner of the coalition, the Radicales, have a joint leadership, Mr. De la Rúa and former president Ricardo Alfonsín, a strong critic of globalization.

Conservatives would include De la Rúa's faithful, Menem's small group of Peronists, former Economy Minister Cavallo's group, some of Alfonsín's followers who in spite of his standing has requested the government be given a chance, and could include those Peronists responding to governors with presidential aspirations who must be politically responsible to international investors.

Liberals would be made up of Frepaso, splinter Radical groups, Peronists according to their interests and provincial parties responding to their specific interests.

This scenario must be considered taking into account the coming Congressional elections of next October, when a new Argentine Senate will be elected directly for the first time, (before it was provincial legislatures that named them), and half of the Representatives.

After thirty months of recession, 15% plus unemployment, consumer confidence at its lowest, the foot and mouth crisis, temptations for demagogic and nationalistic stances could be tempting, but the Argentine electorate has also learnt to value stability, and an inflation free and open economy.

The ruling coalition, in spite of the strong ideological stance of some of its members, won the 1999 elections because Peronists were divided and the electorate was inclined for a change after ten years of Menemism, which towards the end of its mandate came under strong corruption allegations.