MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

All eyes set on Colombia

With less than a week before next Sunday's Colombian presidential election the candidate that has promised an iron fist fight against the guerrilla movement, Alvaro Uribe, leads comfortably with 49,3% of vote intention, more than doubling his runner up, Mr. Horacio Serpa with 23%, according to a poll published in Bogotá's main daily newspaper, El Tiempo.

However, Mr. Uribe needs 50% of the vote if he's to avoid a second round on June 16th., and Mr. Horacio Serpa from the opposition Liberal party could very well convene the rest of the electorate in a runoff.

A total of 1,930 people in 36 different municipalities were polled between May 12/14th.,showing that a crucial 4,6% still remain undecided.

Harvard educated, former governor of Antioquia, Mr. Uribe became the favorite candidate after promising to combat the Marxist inspired guerrillas putting an end to the current several years dialogue policy that has been unable to bring peace and stability to beleaguered Colombia.

Precisely this is the great issue of the presidential campaign, whether to insist with a frustrating dialogue that was suspended last February when the main guerrilla group, FARC kidnapped several politicians on the campaign trail, or follow Mr. Uribe who has proposed doubling the professional Army, (from 55,000 to 100,000), recruiting another 100,000 policemen and a net of civilian informers to help with intelligence gathering.

The extent of the fighting has involved politically and financially both the United States and the European Union.

Campaigning under the slogan "firm hand, big heart", Mr. Uribe, whose father was killed during a kidnap attempt by guerrilla forces, if finally elected, could very well break the traditional party monopoly, Liberals-Conservative, that have dominated Colombian politics since 1820.

But Liberal Mr. Serpa is still very confident. The too strong showing of "warmonger" Mr. Uribe could force the other candidates, left wing Mr. Luis Eduardo Garzón, former Conservative now running as independent Noemí Sanín, and Ingrid Betancourt, currently kidnapped by FARC, to close ranks behind the man from the political system, Mr. Serpa.

In spite of claims that Mr. Serpa in previous elections was involved in receiving money contributions from one of Colombia's most notorious drug cartel.

The Bush administration, the European Union and the rest of Latinamerican will be watching the election very closely. Washington does not endorse Mr. Uribe but believes it's time to forget about the government-guerrilla talks, while the European Union is convinced the only possible solution is through dialogue. Latinamerican fears a war scenario that could spill over to neighbouring countries already politically fragile.