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Latinoamerican Hot News

All eyes set on Colombia / Try again Jimmy / Argentine impact on Chilean economy / Elections now!! / Back to the TV studio / Exotic lamb / Controversy over the IMF / Too many immigrants / Chile after new trade links / “I feel am a gaucho” / Another trouble spot? / US spurs trade round with Chile / Extra digit in Chilean cellular

All eyes set on Colombia
With less than a week before next Sunday's Colombian presidential election the candidate that has promised an iron fist fight against the guerrilla movement, Alvaro Uribe, leads comfortably with 49,3% of vote intention, more than doubling his runner up, Mr. Horacio Serpa with 23%, according to a poll published in Bogotá's main daily newspaper, El Tiempo. However, Mr. Uribe needs 50% of the vote if he's to avoid a second round on June 16th., and Mr. Horacio Serpa from the opposition Liberal party could very well convene the rest of the electorate in a runoff. A total of 1,930 people in 36 different municipalities were polled between May 12/14th., showing that a crucial 4,6% still remain undecided. Harvard educated, former governor of Antioquia, Mr. Uribe became the favorite candidate after promising to combat the Marxist inspired guerrillas putting an end to the current several years' dialogue policy that has been unable to bring peace and stability to beleaguered Colombia. Precisely this is the great issue of the presidential campaign, whether to insist with a frustrating dialogue that was suspended last February when the main guerrilla group, FARC kidnapped several politicians on the campaign trail, or follow Mr. Uribe who has proposed doubling the professional Army, (from 55,000 to 100,000), recruiting another 100,000 policemen and a net of civilian informers to help with intelligence gathering. The extent of the fighting has involved politically and financially both the United States and the European Union. Campaigning under the slogan "firm hand, big heart", Mr. Uribe, whose father was killed during a kidnap attempt by guerrilla forces, if finally elected, could very well break the traditional party monopoly, Liberals-Conservative, that have dominated Colombian politics since 1820. But Liberal Mr. Serpa is still very confident. The too strong showing of "warmonger" Mr. Uribe could force the other candidates, left wing Mr. Luis Eduardo Garzón, former Conservative now running as independent Noemí Sanín, and Ingrid Betancourt, currently kidnapped by FARC, to close ranks behind the man from the political system, Mr. Serpa. In spite of claims that Mr. Serpa in previous elections was involved in receiving money contributions from one of Colombia's most notorious drug cartel. The Bush administration, the European Union and the rest of Latinamerican will be watching the election very closely. Washington does not endorse Mr. Uribe but believes it's time to forget about the government-guerrilla talks, while the European Union is convinced the only possible solution is through dialogue. Latinamerican fears a war scenario that could spill over to neighbouring countries already politically fragile.

Try again Jimmy
US President George Bush is expected this week to adopt a harder line towards Cuba leaving no doubts as to where his administration stands following the bridge-building historic visit of former president Jimmy Carter, who during a speech in Havana, called for more civil liberties in the island but also the lifting of the forty years US trade and communications embargo. Mr. Bush will be talking from the White House and will later visit Miami where he's expected to put an end to speculations about the possibility of lifting the embargo, and reinforce his administration's commitment with the Cuban dissidents in the island. Speculations about the lifting of the trade embargo began with the six days visit of Mr. Carter to Cuba where he was received by President Fidel Castro and was allowed to talk with political dissidents plus a national address demanding more civil and political rights for the Cuban population. Mr. Carter, the most important US figure to visit Cuba since 1959, challenged both Mr. Castro and Mr. Bush to change the current confrontation policy and help the Cuban people. However, according to political sources in Washington Mr. Bush it's almost certain to announce further travel restrictions, more help to opposition groups and additional radio (saturation) transmissions to Cuba. Some US Congressmen fear President Bush could even cut the 100 US dollars a month Cuban residents in the US are allowed to send to relatives in the island. Even before Mr. Carter's visit the Bush administration was claiming that Cuba was involved in the manufacturing of biological weapons, so far unfounded. Mr. Bush total support to the Cuban anti Castro community in Miami is understandable. It was the 27 votes in the Electoral College of Florida and the ballot counting in that state that decided the most contested (and questioned) presidential election in US history. Florida could also be crucial in 2004 when Mr. Bush's reelection comes up and besides brother Jeb Bush, Florida's Governor, is also seeking reelection next November.Try again Jimmy; but Florida is more than the sun and orange state.

Argentine impact on Chilean economy
Although the Chilean financial market managed to avoid contagion from the Argentine crisis, (contrary to what happened in Uruguay for example), the impact will nevertheless be felt in the real economy forcing a growth estimate decline of 0,3%, from 3,3% to 3% for 2002. So it was anticipated by Chilean Central Bank president Carlos Massad addressing the Senate Finance Committee who said that the drop in bilateral trade and the absence of Argentine tourism this last summer could be estimated in 0,2%. However it could easily jump to 0,5%, if Chilean exporters are unable to find alternative markets and if Chilean companies in Argentina continue to loose money. Regarding other markets Mr. Massad said that prospects are encouraging given the expected recovery of the US economy and its impact in Asia, which absorbs a third of Chile's overseas sales. Copper market and prices, (the country's main export) remain depressed although they have ceased to fall, "which is encouraging, said Mr. Massad, however oil prices have increased from an average 21 US dollar per barrel in January to 24 US dollars in May". Chilean economy analysts praised Mr. Massad's cautious appraisal and forecast of the regional situation.

Elections now!!
Almost half the Argentine population wants new elections and an end to the current President Duhalde administration whose term is up in December 2003, according to a Gallup poll published this Sunday in Buenos Aires newspapers. The poll indicates that 74% reject the current administration and 19% support Mr. Duahlde's government; 46% favor new elections and 43% that he remains until December 2003. Only a month ago, disapproval was 67%, support for the president was 24% and 58% favored him remaining in office his full mandate. A total of 1,256 people over 17 years old in 27 different locations of Argentina were interviewed between May 10/15 for the poll. The growing pressure for fresh elections comes from the younger generations and people living outside of Buenos Aires city and province. Other interesting facts about the poll include, 84% disapprove of the current economic policy, and in the higher income brackets rejection jumps to 93%. The social and political situation is described as a "serious perturbation" by 84% of those interviewed and 13% believe it's a "slight perturbation". The latest cabinet reshuffle was seen as a weakening of power for President Duhalde by 67% of those interviewed, while 12% believe it strengthened him.As far as the people's mood, 63% fear there's no solution on sight for the current financial situation. In order of importance, 42% fear violent social upheavals; 37% fear being attacked and robbed; 31%, hyperinflation; 23% a military coup and 19% loosing their job. As far as the future, 44% of those interviewed are pessimistic; 21% believe things will improve and 28%, all will remain unchanged. Those who feel things will worsen are in the 35/49 years group, middle class and with university education. In April a similar assessment about the future was; 34% worse; 30% unchanged and 23% improve. When asked if people were willing to make sacrifices to help the country out of its current financial mess, 61% replied positively, 28% said no and 11% did not answer. However, 89% feel sacrifices imposed by government are not even or fair.

Back to the TV studio
A year ago the Chilean born former world beauty queen Cecilia Bolocco left the TV studio for the grand political stage by marrying former Argentine president Carlos Menem. At the time Mr. Menem was undoubtedly the main opposition leader of the former De la Rúa administration but that quickly ended when he had to spend several weeks under home arrest, allegedly for his involvement in the illegal sales of arms to Ecuador and Croatia. This forced the newly wed bride to spend most of the honey moon in house arrest, surrounded by lawyers and loyal supporters of her husband. Now she's back in Santiago and will be participating in a television program on the World Cup to begin at the end of the month in Korea and Japan. The announcement of her comeback coincides with the celebration of her 37th. birthday (Mr. Menem is 71) and first marriage anniversary. Mrs. Menem will be acting with a famous Chilean humorist Alvaro Salas with whom she has worked in other occasions. Meantime Mr. Menem begins a tour of US businessmen, bankers and investors to announce how he's preparing to rescue Argentina, beginning December 2003, when he expects to be elected president again. "I'm the best storm pilot in Argentina, I've proved it and I can do it again", said Mr. Menem.

Exotic lamb
Although the supply of so called "exotic meats" has significantly increased in the last few years in Chile, mainly Santiago, consumption of these non traditional products is still minimum compared to the more traditional poultry, pork and beef, according to an official report from the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock. Traditional meat consumption in Chile during 2001 reached 73 kilos per capita and was divided as follows: 31 kilos poultry; 23 kilos beef and 18 kilos pork. Exotic meats represented a mere 1,3% of which lamb was top of the list with an average annual consumption per capita of 600 grams. Far behind comes rabbit and lately ostrich. Even more sophisticated and practically unknown because of limited distribution are deer, wild boar, goat. However producers and farmers of non traditional meats believe that as happened in Europe, the market will consistently grow, particularly with better publicity and the growing concern for organic produce among consumers. "We're targeting 8, 9% of the meat market in ten years time; we believe it's achievable", said Salvador Toro, president of the Non traditional meat producers organization. "I think the best example of what can be achieved is what is happening with Magallanes lamb. They have a growing presence with an aggressive policy in the high bracket market and it's working", indicated Mr. Toro.

Controversy over the IMF
Argentine public opinion is split down quiet evenly regarding the convenience or not of reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to obtain much needed financial assistance to overcome the current crisis. An opinion poll published this weekend indicates that 38% of those interviewed consider essential an agreement with the IMF, while 42% favor breaking off talks. The IMF is insisting Argentina present a viable, long term economic program and a balanced budget before disbursing much needed funds. Last November IMF suspended all aid to Argentina when the country failed to meet agreed budget and monetary targets, helping to spark violent unrest that ended forcing the resignation of former president Fernando De la Rúa on December 20th. The current president, Eduardo Duhalde nominated by Congress, has been desperately talking with the IMF to obtain the funds that should help the country overcome the almost four years running recession with record unemployment and poverty levels. However there's strong resistance to accept IMF's recommendations from certain political sectors and the trade unions. Even in Mr. Duhalde's ruling Peronist Party, 46% are against negotiations and 36% accept them. Regarding age groups, the poll conducted by the conservative New Majority Studies Center indicates that young people are most opposed to a deal with the IMF if it means complying with many of the austerity conditions. In the 18/29 years group, 49% favor breaking off talks and 36% reaching an agreement. In the 30/54 years group, opinions are evenly split in 38% for each side. President Duhalde in press interviews over the week end, after meeting with European leaders in Madrid, admitted "there's no other alternative but to reach a deal with the IMF, because that's the safeguard for our economic recovery". Mr. Duhalde also anticipated Argentina will comply and have the bills requested by the IMF and the agreement with the provincial governments by the end of the month. "I'm convinced we'll sign an agreement with the IMF in early June. We're all convinced about this, and once we've reached that stage many European countries have promised further bilateral assistance", stressed President Duhalde.

Too many immigrants
Almost 70% of Spaniards consider there are too many immigrants in the country and 60% link them to the increase in crime, according to a poll released this week in Madrid. Of the 1,000 people interviewed by the Opina Institute, 75% said Spanish President José Aznar must pass legislation limiting the arrival of new immigrants and 86% demanded an understanding on the issue among political parties with legislative representation. However 25% said they were satisfied with the current Aznar administration efforts to curtail illegal immigration. When asked if Spaniards have become more intolerant towards immigrants, 66% replied affirmatively. And as to the reasons, 19% of those interviewed link illegal immigration to rising crime; 17% because they are cheap labor limiting working opportunities for the locals; another 17% believe there are "too many immigrants" and 11% fear "racism attacks". The poll did not discriminate immigrants by origin, but Spain is faced with two main sources of immigration: from North Africa, overall considered non desirable, and from Latinamerica. Spaniards are ambiguous towards Latinamericans since vast majorities have Spanish roots, but their impact in the labor market, both qualified and none qualified, is generating a growing resentment.

Chile after new trade links
Literally just hours after signing a historic free trade agreement with the European Union, a delegation of Chilean businessmen headed by Economy Minister Jorge Rodríguez is visiting Spain, and particularly Galicia, with the purpose of attracting investors. Mr. Rodríguez said that the recent trade agreement with the EU is an excellent framework for middle sized companies to invest in Chile, "since the big companies are already established. We're talking of companies in areas such as fisheries, wineries, fruit farming and the leather industry". A Galician delegation is expected to visit Chile in early July to explore the opportunities of the new agreement. Mr. Rodríguez emphasized the close links with Galicia; --most Spanish descendants in Chile come from that region--, and the fact that Chile can become a trading platform for ventures in Asia and Oceania. "In Chile, Spaniards, particularly Galician are treated as nationals", remarked Mr. Rodríguez, adding that the trade agreement now enables foreign companies total ownership of fishing companies previously limited to 49%. "Even with a local market of 15 million, since signing with the Europeans we've become more attractive for Asia and this is an excellent platform for Spanish expansion in the Pacific basin", underlined Mr. Rodríguez. The delegation is expected to visit other European countries to promote investments and trade with Chile.

"I feel am a gaucho"
Pope John Paul II said he felt he was a "gaucho" after holding a private twenty minutes audience with Brazilian president Fernando Cardoso who is visiting Italy and the Vatican. "I feel am a gaucho", said the Pope, and President Cardoso replied that not only was "his Holiness a gaucho, but a carioca and a Brazilian" in direct reference to the country with most Catholics in the world. Following the special audience in the Paul VI Aula, Pope John Paul II addressed several thousand Brazilians and Spaniards in Saint Peter's Square where they had convened to celebrate the canonizing of Brazil's first female saint, Paulina del Corazón Agonizante de Jesús and Spaniard Alonso de Orozco. The new Brazilian saint whose real name was Amabile Lucia Visintainer was born in Italy in 1875 and died in Sao Paulo in 1942. She was beatified by the Pope in the city of Florianopolis when his Holiness visited Brazil in 1991. This is the third time President Cardoso, an agnostic Sociology professor, visits the Pope in the Vatican, with previous audiences in 1997 and 1999. The Brazilian delegation besides President Cardoso, Mrs. Cardoso and their 8 years old grandson, included Sao Paulo governor Gerardo Akmin, Santa Catalina governor Esperidiao Amin and his wife who also happens to be mayor of the city of Florianopolis. Brazil is holding presidential and legislative elections next October and a picture with the Pope is quiet a boost for the electorate of the country with the greatest Catholic population.

Another trouble spot?
Disapproval of Peruvian president Alejandro Toledo climbed to 69% following a week of street protests and criticism of his administration's economic policies, according to a poll published in the leading Lima newspaper "El Comercio" over the weekend. In Lima and the adjoining port city of El Callao where most of the Peruvian population is concentrated, Mr. Toledo's lack of popularity rose another three points and those who support him dropped to 22%. Mr. Toledo has been in office for less than a year and is confronting a serious credibility problem since 65% of those interviewed simply do not believe him, a percentage just below the country's two last presidents, Alan García, 67%, and Alberto Fujimori, 70%. Over half of Lima's populations (53%) believe their family's economic situation has worsened during the last twelve months and 35% are convinced things will not improve next year. However the poll also indicated that a significant proportion of the Lima population does not have a true grasp of the Toledo administration's policies particularly in the economic field, and therefore "it is possible to revert the situation and credibility gap". For example Peruvians apparently are willing to accept "privatization of energy generating plants if the government guarantees greater investment and jobs in the area of influence of these utilities". Furthermore, in spite of the extent of the strikes last week, Peruvians overwhelmingly favor peaceful demonstrations and reject violent street protesting.

US spurs trade round with Chile
Spurred by the European Union-Chile agreement, Unites States and Chilean Trade representatives agreed that five of the negotiating groups meet during the last week of May and an assessment session of the current process be held June 13th. in Washington. According to the Chilean press, Mr. Osvaldo Rosales from the US and the Chilean delegate Regina Vargo agreed on the agenda that includes those groups that for different reasons did not meet during the previous round of talks held in Santiago last April. Those groups are Services and Investment; Sanitary and Phyto sanitary; Intellectual Property and Financial Services. June 13th, the whole picture will be analyzed and dates for the new rounds of the different groups will be agreed. Since the mid nineties Chile, --the country in South America with the lowest tariffs and most open economy--, has been battling for a bilateral agreement with Nafta, North America Free Trade Association members and managed to achieve them with Mexico and Canada. Talks with the United States are in the last leg but much depends on the Bush Administration's ability to obtain a special authority from Congress.

Extra digit in Chilean cellular
As of next July 5th, Chilean cellular phones will have an additional digit at the beginning of their current seven digits. Chilean Communications Under Secretary Christian Nicolai said the operation has been coordinated with private companies and is direct consequence of the rapid expansion of the cellular phone system in Chile. "At the moment companies need more numbers in spite of the fact that with seven digits up to ten million combinations are possible. However some combinations are needed for other internal purposes", indicated Mr. Nicolai Users will therefore have to place a 9 before the seven digits, and any new cellular number contracted as of July 5th, will work with an 8 before the seven digits. "The new service will be implemented as of July 5th, and we estimate that the whole operation can be concluded in a month. To guide cellular clients we will publicize in all the media and in phone recordings the new system so people don't forget to add the extra digit", stressed Mr. Nicolai.