MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Bolivia: And now what?

Although the final results will not be forthcoming for several weeks, poll estimates indicate former president Gonzalo de Sánchez Lozada won the first round of Bolivia's election with Manuel Reyes Villa trailing closely behind with less than a point difference, ( 21% and 20%), but both distant from the 50% plus one needed to take office next August 6th.

According to the Bolivian constitution the situation must now be solved with alliances in the newly elected Congress, in two rounds of voting beginning August 2nd. with the support of at least 80 of the 157 legislators.

However and contrary to all expectations, the intervention of US Ambassador Manuel Rocha threatening to cut American aid if the Indian candidate Evo Morales leader of the coca planters was elected, boosted his chances to a third place ahead of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, both of whom will now be decisive in the congressional voting.

Of the 157 legislators, Mr. Sánchez Lozada carries possibly 52, Mr. Reyes Villa, Cochabamba Mayor 34, Mr. Morales another 32, and Paz Zamora 27, plus the rest divided among smaller parties.

Indian leader Morales, who is a rabid enemy of globalization, anticipated there's no possible agreement with the "establishment", "racist, fascist" parties, while Mr. Sánchez Lozada has appealed to a "unity government" inviting his runner up and Mr. Paz Zamora to join him. However Mr. Paz Zamora, a declared Social-democrat is in no mood in leaving all the opposition in hands of Mr. Morales and forecasted that "Mr. Sanchez Lozada will not be Bolivia's next president".

Actually he has sufficient experience to stand behind his words: in 1989 third in the polling, Congress finished naming him president to prevent a former General from turned democrat from taking office.

Mr. Paz Zamora believes he will finally convince Mr. Morales and together with other minority parties obtain the necessary 80 votes.

This leaves a possible coalition between Sánchez Lozada and Reyes Villa, both Conservative, but possibly too soon to give up the ambition and hopes of becoming the country's next president. And in Bolivian politics all combinations are possible?. So for the next thirty days, as the Bolivian media ceaselessly repeats, "and now what?"?