MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Latest poll shakes up Brazil's presidential race

The Brazilian electoral scene changed dramatically Friday as a latecomer to the presidential race knocked leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva out of first place in the most recent poll.

Brazil, the second-biggest Western democracy and South America's economic engine, will choose a successor to President Fernando Henrique Cardoso on Oct. 6. Until recently, the heavy favorite was Lula, a former steelworker making his fourth bid for the presidency at the head of the Workers Party (PT), running on a platform advocating radical changes in economic and social policies.

The new front-runner is Ciro Gomes, a former finance minister who played a role in launching Plan Real, the 1994 initiative that put an end to Brazil's chronic hyperinflation.

According to a poll released Thursday, Gomes would defeat Lula by 47 percent to 40 percent in a likely runoff.

But the new favorite is taking nothing for granted. "We have no time to celebrate, we have to work," said Gomes campaign official Manuel Diasu on Thursday, noting that there were still 10 weeks to go before the elections.

Gomes' ascent in the polls has exceeded the expectations of his own Labor Front, a coalition of center-left parties, which, like the PT, is seeking to appeal to voters disenchanted after eight years under Cardoso, the author of Plan Real. According to spokesmen for the Gomes campaign, 66 percent of voters oppose Cardoso's free-market economic policies.

The electoral campaign has coincided with turbulence in the financial markets that threatens to wipe out the gains made over 10 years of relative stability and low inflation. Brazil's currency, the real, has fallen by 30 percent against the dollar so far this year, and economic growth has slowed. The country is also contending with unemployment of 7.5 percent, while 40 percent of those who are working lack job security or benefits. These economic ills - accompanied by soaring crime - have overshadowed Cardoso's accomplishments in the fields of education and health, which even his opponents acknowledge.

"The situation is so bad that there is no way someone representing the government can do well in the polls," said a political observer, referring to the fourth-place showing of former Health Minister Jose Serra, a Cardoso protege. Officials from Lula's campaign said their candidate remains calm in the face of the latest poll results, and that he will stick to his strategy of explaining his political program regardless of who he may face in a possible runoff. If there is a second round, the PT will focus on its contention that Gomes represents "a change in name only," as his supporters "are the same oligarchs who have ruled the country since its discovery," a Lula campaign spokesman said.

Lula also enjoyed big early leads in the polls before his three previous election losses. Spokesman for Serra, the candidate of the ruling coalition, had no comment on the latest poll, which showed the former health minister tied for fourth place with the populist former governor of Rio de Janeiro, Anthony Garotinho, standard-bearer of the Brazilian Socialist Party.

But Serra's mentor, Cardoso, was more forthcoming, saying Thursday that he planned to get involved in the campaign. He said he was convinced Brazilians would support Serra "to the extent they perceive it is necessary to give continuity to this style of government." The president said he would work to consolidate Serra's campaign and his party's position. "I will not evade that (responsibility)," he told reporters upon arriving in Guayaquil, Ecuador, to attend the 2nd South American Summit.

The president downplayed the polls, saying that the experience of past elections had illustrated the volatility of the electorate. Serra and his supporters think the race will not really define itself until after Aug. 20, when candidates begin getting free airtime for ads on radio and television.