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Bolivia: Sanchez Losada confirmed president
Uruguay: Waiting for Mr. O'Neill

Brazil: Ciro growing and growing?

Sanchez Losada confirmed president

Gonzalo Sánchez Losada was finally elected Bolivian president for the second time, following a Congressional majority vote from the future ruling coalition. The millionaire United States educated president will be taking office this Tuesday, Bolivia's National Day, in a ceremony that will be attended by several regional presidents and the heir to the Spanish throne. According to the Bolivian electoral system the play off between the two most voted candidates takes place in Congress where the winner must manage 80 votes out of 157. Sanchez Losada struck a deal with Jaime Paz Zamora (fourth in votes), therefore defeating Evo Morales, leader of the Andean coca growers who managed an unexpected second place in the June 30th. Presidential election. The Congressional confirmation was expected to take place on Saturday but was delayed until Sunday given the insistence of Morales legislators in attacking Mr. Sánchez Losada for his "liberal" market oriented economic policies and for having privatized public utilities and other government run companies during his first term 1993-97. Criticism was also extensive to Mr. Paz Zamora who describes himself as a "social democrat". When the list of speakers was over, Sánchez Losada was elected Bolivia's next president with 80 votes, while Mr. Morales managed 43. Mr. Sánchez Lozada task will not be easy. The Bolivian economy is in deep trouble, and there's a growing political awareness among the Indian population who have discovered in Mr. Morales a natural leader, who has promised no breathing space for the incoming government made of up "of corrupt Creoles, who have exploited for decades the indigenous people of Bolivia and the country's resources". Another contentious issue awaiting Mr. Sanchez Losada is the sale overseas of abundant natural gas from land locked Bolivia. This means either crossing Peruvian or Chilean territory. The American consortium behind the operation has discarded the Peruvian option as extremely costly, but the Chilean option means the pipeline would cross former Bolivian territory lost in the 1879 war, a very sensitive political issue both for the Chilean and Bolivian governments that have no formal diplomatic relations.

Waiting for Mr. O'Neill

Uruguay in the midst of its worst banking system confidence crisis in decades is anxiously awaiting the arrival of United States Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, who is expected in Montevideo next Tuesday, when hopefully Congress will have approved a bill restructuring the whole financial system, and a desperately needed 1,5 billion US dollars assistance will then be available. When the financial crisis of neighboring Argentine began spilling over, Uruguay in early June received a massive support (over 3,5 billion US dollars) from the IMF and other multilateral financial institutions. But in the last few weeks panicked depositors fearing the worst, accelerated the run on banks and the Uruguayan government was forced last week to close banks temporarily in an attempt to prevent the depletion of deposits and international reserves that were escaping at an average 50 million US dollars daily. A Uruguayan mission was rapidly sent to Washington to request a further advance of the committed funds. However internal IMF procedures have delayed the operation and the US Treasury intervened with a 1,5 billion US dollars bridging loan until the final agreement is reached, but on condition, among other things, that an immediate reform of the banking system is approved meaning no further support for ailing or cash strapped banks. This Sunday the Uruguayan Senate passed the bill, 18 votes in 30, and Deputies will begin discussions early Monday to complete the legislative consideration. Coincidently Mr. O'Neill as part of his long scheduled three countries visit (Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay), will be arriving in Montevideo this Tuesday when the whole rescue package should be formally concluded, and the 1,5 billion fund can be disposed off. The Uruguayan government is crossing its fingers hoping that the combination of the bill, President Bush's "money" man in Montevideo and the US Treasury check will help gradually to restore confidence in the banking system. That is as long as quick tongued Mr. O'Neill doesn't come up with another of those irritating remarks about "aid money ending in Swiss bank accounts". And if the powerful Uruguayan bank employees union is not tempted into forcing a conflict, after all the banking reform means at least 20% of the current jobs will be lost.

Ciro growing and growing?.

With just two months before presidential election day in Brazil, Ciro Gomes from the Popular Socialist Party is technically even with the candidate that was comfortably leading the polls until a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Inacio Lula da Silva. According to the latest polls from the end of July, Mr. Gomes crossed the 30% threshold and Mr. Lula has dropped below 34%, and given a "2,2 to 2,5% margin of error", both candidates are "in a technical draw". Last June, the same polls indicated Mr. Gomes was trailing Mr. Lula by 27 to 35%. Since no candidate is expected to obtain 50% of the vote next October 6th., a play off is forecasted and Mr. Gomes, according to the polls, would just manage to defeat Mr. Lula who until just a few weeks ago seemed unbeatable. The ruling coalition candidate, hand picked by president Fernando Cardoso, José Serra, keeps sliding in public opinion and now stands below 13%. The extraordinary rise of Mr. Gomes has come as a surprise since he's backed by a strange political rainbow, from Socialist former governor Leonel Brizola to powerful Conservative Carlos Antonio Magallanes, who dominates virtually the whole northeast Congressional block of Brazil. However they do have a converging point and that is national capitalism, as opposed to international (globalized) capitalism. Mr. Gomes is collecting strong support from Brazilian industrialists and farmers, concerned about the in roads of international corporations in Brazilian industry, agriculture, finance and other areas considered strategic. President Cardoso has warned that if Mr. Gomes makes it to the second round his coalition will support Mr. Lula, the former union leader who Mr. Cardoso defeated twice. However, the ruling coalition stalwarts have said, "Mr. Cardoso speaks for himself". This uncertainty, plus the fact that Mr. Lula has a long past of preaching a "restructuring" of Brazil's massive foreign debt, has caused serious turbulences in the Brazilian bond and currency markets, prompting international creditors to request tranquilizing signals. Mr. Lula seems willing, however Mr. Gomes refuses to agree to any long term understanding in the financial field, until the election is over...