MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lula in the first round?

Former left wing union leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, comfortably leading in the polls, increased this week his advantage and now stands with 42% of vote intention, which could ensure him the Brazilian presidency in the first round.

According to the latest poll from Vox Populli, published in the Correio Braziliense of Brasilia, Mr. Lula in his fourth presidential bid increased three points reaching 42%, while his immediate competitors, Mr. José Serra dropped from 19 to 17% and Ciro Gomes stands now at 15%, down two points.

The poll with a margin error of 1,9 points was taken between last Sunday and Monday interviewing 2,800 people from all over Brazil.

Mr. Serra is the ruling coalition candidate and darling of the markets, while Mr. Gomes is an independent nationalist with a catch-all support who until last week was out pacing Mr. Serra and challenging Mr. Lula. However in televised presidential candidates' debates Mr. Gomes has come through as too aggressive, and is also short of campaign space.

Brazilian presidential elections are scheduled for next October 6th., with a run off in November.

The growing possibility of a Lula victory, with a long story of leftist pro-government and anti market rhetoric until this his fourth presidential bid, plus nationalist Mr. Gomes, have created uncertainty in local markets affecting Brazilian bonds and the local currency. In August IMF announced a 30 billion US dollars stand by loan for Brazil and all candidates conceded their commitment to the current open market, IMF blessed, policies.