MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Populist win in Ecuador

A former Colonel Lucio Gutiérrez is leading with 20,28% of the vote in Ecuador's tightest ever presidential election trailed by the country's wealthiest man, Alvaro Noboa with 17,41%, when over 95% of the vote count has concluded, according to the latest report of the Electoral Tribunal.

In third place are Socialist candidate León Roldós and former Social Christian president Rodrigo Borja with just below 16%. The first round of the Ecuadorian election included eleven candidates but the run off on November 24th seems certain to be between the two leading populist candidates.

Colonel Gutierrez with support from Indian organisations led a successful coup against then president Jamil Mahuad in 2000 that led to a caretaker presidency by Gustavo Noboa, no relation of Mr. Alvaro Noboa.

"Not only did I take first place, I'm also certain I will win the run-off and revive hope for change in Ecuador", said the former Colonel, who many resemble with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, a former military coup leader who finally managed to take office democratically.

Mr. Noboa is head of a banana empire, (together with oil the main production of Ecuador), and similarly to Mr. Gutiérrez lacks political experience in a most unstable country that since 1996 has had five presidents.

According to the United Nations Development Program, 79% of the 12 million Ecuadorians live under the poverty line, with a daily income below two US dollars. Official unemployment is 9% and sub employment 30%.

Under president Mahuad, after defaulting, Ecuador adopted the US dollar as the country's currency and the country's finances seem to have improved with growth reaching 5,6% in 2001.

However corruption and unemployment are rife and the leading positions of Mr.Gutiérrez and Mr. Noboa can be interpreted as a victory for populism over traditional parties and politics.