MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Poll gives Chavez edge in referendum.

In the coming August 15 referendum, some 45 percent of Venezuelans will vote in favor of president Hugo Chavez continuing as president, about 34 percent will vote for his recall, and a significant number remains undecided, according to a poll published Friday in the the daily El Nacional.

The undecided represent approximately 20 percent of eligible voters and will probably decide the outcome, said the poll carried out between June 14 and July 1 by research firm Keller & Asociados.

Those who describe themselves as undecided are believed to include a high proportion of anti-Chavez individuals reluctant to declare their preference. In the Aug. 15 referendum, they "will vote for the opposition in a ration of 3 to 1," the daily said, quoting research-company director Alfredo Keller.

Chavez identifies Keller & Asociados with those opposing his administration, as he does El Nacional, which he repeatedly calls "the coup newspaper." Should the opposition garner a minimum 3.7 million votes to equal those Chavez received in the July 2000 elections, and the president gets less votes than the opposition, then Chavez will bow out of the presidency August 15 and an election for an interim president will take place within 30 days.

The poll is based on a sample of 1,633 voters from 113 towns with more than 20,000 inhabitants each, with a margin of error calculated at 2.8 percent.

With regard to results of other polls during the same period which variously show Chavez as a sure winner or sure loser, Keller & Asociados explains that one reason could be that the number of voters in the country has surged from 12 million to almost 14 million in the last six months.

At the same time "there is a hidden vote, similar to what occurred in Nicaragua in 1999, due to fear." "Some 67 percent believe that violence will break out if Chavez is recalled" and that some "37 percent consider that the president will take reprisals against whoever votes 'yes'" for his recall.

The study also shows that social programs initiated by the government have boosted Chavez's popularity to about 46 percent, after dipping to 36 percent in December 2003 and 43 percent last April