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Poll: Kerry leads Bush.

Friday, October 8th 2004 - 21:00 UTC
Full article

US Sen. John Kerry has taken a slim lead over President George W. Bush, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the president's support tumbling on personal qualities, the war in Iraq and the commander in chief's bedrock campaign issue ? US security.

Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the Iraq war.

The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, showed a reversal from early September, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. With bloodshed increasing in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks and Bush stumbled in their initial debate. Nearly three-fourths of likely voters who were surveyed said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week, according to the poll. Some 39 percent said they came away with a more favourable view of Kerry, while just eight percent felt better about Bush.

??I was more comfortable with Kerry after the debate,'' said Louis Robinson, a 66-year-old retiree. ??I just like the way he carried himself.'' Nearly a third of likely voters who watched said the debate gave them a less favorable view of Bush.

Among 944 likely voters, the Kerry-Edwards ticket led Bush-Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent.

The race was tied 47-47 percent among all voters. Other polls show the race just as tight. While national polls gauge the potential popular vote, the real race for the White House is playing out one state at a time. That competition is remarkably close, with analysts saying both candidates are within reach of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency.

Bush is threatening Kerry's claim to Democratic-leaning states such as Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and New Jersey. Kerry is pressing Bush's advantage in the two most critical states, Florida and Ohio, as well as GOP-leaning Colorado.

Bush advisers privately acknowledge that in the first debate he cost himself by fidgeting and grimacing during Kerry's answers, and failing to seize upon openings the Democrat gave him. They felt better about Vice-President Dick Cheney's performance on Tuesday against Kerry's running mate Sen. John Edwards, and predicted that Bush would be sharper ? and tougher on Kerry ? during tonight's debate in St. Louis.

In the poll, six in 10 voters said the country was headed on the wrong track, reflecting a gloomy national mood that could jeopardize Bush's re-election bid. His overall approval rating, 46 percent, was at its lowest point since June ? down from 54 percent in late September.

Eric Schlichting, an inventory manager who tends to vote Republican, said Iraq is troubling him. ??Up until the last 18 months, I was leaning toward Bush, but the more that happens the worse it gets,'' Schlichting said. ??He sticks to his guns, but his aim is so far off that sticking to his guns is not paying off.''

In the broad scheme of things, Kerry's advances in opinion polls may be nothing more than a political adjustment ? a nudge of the pendulum rather than a big swing. But for some Republicans, the shift came as a shock, because they had looked at the first debate as a chance to put the race away.

Instead, Bush lost his momentum.

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