MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Foot-and-mouth scare threatens New Zealand

As farmers and exporters in this nation of ten times more sheep than people hope a foot-and-mouth scare turns out to be a hoax, analysts warned yesterday that if it proves true, the disease could devastate the nation's economy.

??It would be a catastrophe ... every New Zealander would be affected,'' warns Annabelle Young, chief executive of lobby group Federated Farmers.

??New Zealand could be brought to its knees by the introduction of a serious livestock disease,'' agreed Agriculture Ministry biosecurity chief Barry O'Neil. ??It is our worst nightmare.''

A foot-and-mouth outbreak would wreak havoc on New Zealand's tourism and farming sectors ? the main drivers of the economy and foreign exchange income. International markets would likely shun New Zealand farm products, while movement controls within the country would disrupt tourism, analysts say.

Britain suffered a major outbreak of the disease in 2001, prompting the slaughter of nearly 4 million farm animals. That outbreak caused widespread damage to Britain's rural economy and officials were widely criticized for their slow response to the crisis and their failure to contain the virus by halting the movement of stock in rural areas.

ANZ Bank chief economist John McDermott said a livestock disease sweeping the countryside would have a massive negative impact on New Zealand's economy.

In a ??worst-case scenario,'' a foot-and-mouth outbreak would put the New Zealand dollar in free-fall, cause a 10 percent cut in GDP, a loss of 4 billion New Zealand dollars (US$2.9 billion; euro2.3 billion) from the meat trade, and a sharp reduction in tourism incomes, McDermott said.

??You're talking about disruption of 10 percent of the economy happening pretty rapidly. That would have major impact on our standard of living and would have major ramifications on financial markets,'' McDermott told The Associated Press.

New Zealand has alerted some 50 trading partners, but so far none have slapped broad bans on the country's farm exports. Mexico allowed a shipment of sheep and cattle to come ashore yesterday which had left New Zealand before the scare emerged.

The letter sent to Prime Minister Helen Clark said hay infected with foot-and-mouth virus had been fed to stock on Waiheke Island, near the major city of Auckland, on Monday.

Foot-and-mouth is a highly contagious virus that affects cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, sheep and pigs, causing sores, blisters and fever. It is deadly for livestock but harmless to people. It takes four to seven days to incubate in infected stock.

If there is an outbreak of the disease on Waiheke Island, first symptoms would likely appear Friday. Vets and biosecurity specialists will check the island's 18,000 sheep and 2,500 cattle every 48 hours for the next two weeks.

Leading foot-and-mouth expert Roger Morris of Massey University said that if foot-and-mouth infected 100 New Zealand farms, it could ??become quite explosive and very hard to control ... (taking) months rather than days or weeks'' to bring under control.

Officials ??still believe that this matter is a hoax,'' O'Neil from the Agriculture Ministry said yesterday.