MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Twenty million Chileans by 2050

The Chilean population is set to keep growing at least until 2030 and possibly 2050, when it is expected to reach in excess of 20 million according to a Vital Statistics (deaths and births) report released by the country's Institute of Statistics.

Based on the 2002 census and other socio-economic factors such as immigration, the working hypothesis for the report with the lowest growth forecast, that is with an average fertility of 1,35 children per family during ten years, indicates the overall population could reach 17 million from the current 15 million.

"As can be seen the population of Chile, will continue to grow in spite of the fertility rate descent. By 2050 we expect the population to surpass 20 million", indicated Dirk Jaspers from the Latinamerican Demographic Center, a body which depends from United Nations and helped with the report.

The document also shows that while Santiago's metropolitan area will keep up with the country's average population growth, the Regions I, II, IV, V, X and XI will increase above average.

However these projections also show that Chile's population is ageing and towards mid century there will be more grown up adults than children, as a result of a gradual birth declination and a sustained increase in living expectations.

An ageing population will determine an increase in mortality over births, and therefore stopping population growth.

Mr. Jasper said that leaving aside all other considerations the population projections are vital for estimating government spending and investment particularly in such sensitive areas as education, health, employment and the overall social condition of the community.

It will also help the Chilean government determine its future immigration policy.