Colombia president Alvaro Uribe would be elected in the first round by 56% of the vote if his re-election bid is accepted by a special tribunal and if polling was now, according to a prestigious political and business magazine La Semana.
Uribe whose four year mandate concludes August 2006 is waiting for a ruling from the Constitutional Court which had to decide whether a reform voted by Congress at the beginning of the year opens the way for his immediate re-election.
According to the public opinion poll released by the magazine La Semana and broadcasted by several radio stations and television channels, Mr. Uribe has a vote intention of 56%, five points above the 50% plus one requested for a first round victory.
Presidential elections are scheduled for next May 28 with a run off between the two most voted (if no candidate manages 50% plus one votes) June 18.
The Constitutional Court is currently involved in the consideration of over fifteen "illegality" demands presented against the Congressional reform, for which it has one month exactly to come to a veredict.
President Uribe in his final year of rule has popularity above 70%, a record for guerrilla and narcotics strafed Colombia and his followers argue that the four years are not enough to complete economic reforms and the armed struggle against guerrillas.
Runner up in the public opinion poll is candidate Horacio Serpa with 11% of vote intention. He ran unsuccessfully against Mr. Uribe in 2002.
Third place is shared by twice former mayor of Bogotá, capital of Colombia, Antanas Mockus and Antonio Navarro Wolf from a left wing coalition. If the re-election bid is thrown out of court, Mr. Serpa leads with 30% of vote intention.
As to current affairs, 49% of Colombians believe the country is in the "right track" and 43% on the "wrong track". President Uribe's government performance is considered excellent by 26%, 41% good and 25% acceptable. The opinion poll involved 1.209 interviews in 32 municipalities with a plus/minus error margin of 2,9%.
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