MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chile: Bachelet forecasted to win in spite of run off

The Chilean ruling coalition candidate Michelle Bachelet will be forced to a run off with conservative Sebastian Piñera in the coming December 11 presidential election according to Foundation Chile 21.

The forecast from the Director of the Electoral Program of the foundation, linked to the government, is based on the assessment of strategic districts, campaign performance, candidates standing and personal intuition.

Pepe Auth, who is also a recognized political scientist estimates that next December 11, Ms Bachelet will manage 47,3% of the vote; Mr. Piñera 26,7%; Joaquin Lavin 21,4% and Tomas Hirsch 4%.

Mr. Auth points out that the two conservative candidates have one point more than the coalition's Ms Bachelet but 0,6% less than when the first round in the previous presidential election in 1999.

In December 1999 there was a run off between Mr. Ricardo Lagos and Joaquin Lavin, at the time Santiago's mayor.

This time according to Mr. Auth the big battle will be over the 1.8 million votes that did not poll for Ms Bachelet and those who voted for Mr. Lavin in the first round, which is an uphill challenge for Mr. Piñera.

"To win Mr. Piñera needs 86% of those disputed votes, ?which comes to a 5 to 1 ratio", argued Mr. Auth.

As to the Lower House Mr. Auth forecasts that the ruling coalition will recover the absolute majority it lost in 2001, reaching 50% of the vote, with the conservative opposition dropping from 44 to 40,6%.

If Mr. Auth forecasts prove correct, Ms. Bachelet would become Chile's first woman president.