MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chilean conservatives lead for the first time since 1989

Even when the Chilean ruling coalition presidential candidate Socialist Michelle Bachelet won nearly 46% of the vote last Sunday, the warning factor is that for the first time since 1989, when Chile returned to democracy, the conservatives garnered more votes almost 49%, which is crucial for the run off next January 15.

Runner up conservative Sebastian Piñera managed 25,4% and the other right wing hopeful, former Santiago mayor Joaquin Lavin, 23,22%.

"For the first time we have more votes than the ruling Concertation" Mr. Lavin told his supporters late Sunday in direct reference to the Socialist-Christian Democrat coalition that has ruled Chile since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990.

"So, if we do the right job, I'm sure that you will be the next president of Chile, and our ideas and teams will rule the country", added Lavin in direct reference to Mr. Piñera who will be facing Ms Bachelet in the January run off.

Supported by Chile's Communist Party and the Greens, Tomas Hirsch with 5,4% could play a key role in the final outcome.

However the Socialist-Christian Democrat marriage has had its problems and Mr. Piñera and his mild (compassionate) conservatism could be attractive for some more traditional (and even chauvinistic) Christian Democrats, who are not entirely satisfied with agnostic Ms. Bachelet.

Besides, the message from the polling booths was very conclusive: 45% for the presidential candidate and a majority 51% vote for the ruling coalition in Congress.

It is the first time the ruling Concertacion has won a majority in the Senate since it came to power in 1990, 55,7% and 51,7% in the Lower House..

"The game is wide open" said political analyst Eugenio Tironi adding that "we'll see a race against the clock to recover the votes of Lavin and Hirsch".

Billionaire and former Senator Piñera anticipated that in the second round there will be "Michelle Bachelet on one side, leading the somewhat worn-out ruling block, and me on the other side heading a new, younger, stronger coalition".

Mr. Piñera's message is expected to target and question Ms Bachelet leadership, authority and capacity to rule, which proved effective in the campaign.

"Maybe our message was not put forward with enough energy" admitted Ms. Bachelet but she anticipated "victory by a wide margin" in the runoff.

During the campaign Ms Bachelet claimed that both conservative candidates were "right wing", one "evident" and not afraid of saying so, Mr. Lavin and the other "disguised, so disguised it almost looks Christian Democrat", Piñera.

Public opinion polls before Sunday's election suggested that the former Defence minister would win a run-off against any other candidate, but it's now an open guess.

Analysts believe a big error of the Bachelet campaign was to first distance the candidate from the government and President Lagos, and then when the opinion polls began to shrink run under the president's wing. Mr. Lagos is considered by far the ruling coalition's main asset with over 65% performance approval.

Ms Bachelet if finally elected would be the first woman president in Chile and is expected to follow many of the policies of her mentor President Ricardo Lagos, free market economics mixed with social programmes.

Her January run off slogan which is already flooding the media is "Bachelet President, for Chile, and for the people".

"We're on the right track, I promised three victories: in the first round, a Congressional majority, which we conquered, now we're ready for the run off and the first woman president in Chile", she pledged to her followers.

Six years ago Socialist candidate Ricardo Lagos tied with Santiago's mayor Joaquin Lavin, (47,96% and 47,51%), but it was a completely different Chile.

Former president Eduardo Frei's popularity had collapsed, Chile faced a serious economic downturn and Mr. Lavin was a fresh face that promised change.

Chile today is a beacon of economic prosperity and massive investment in social upgrading.