MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chile: Latest poll shows Bachelet 5 points ahead

The latest public opinion poll before Sunday's run off in Chile's presidential election shows ruling coalition candidate Michelle Bachelet leading her Conservative opponent Santiago Piñera by five points.

When asked "for whom will you vote in the Sunday January 15 run off?" Ms Bachelet comes ahead with 45% of vote intention and Mr. Piñera with 40%. The percentage voting null or breaking their ballots is 4.5% and those who said they will not vote, 10.5%.

The Mori public opinion poll also asked, "Who do you think will be the next (Chilean) president? with 53% replying Bachelet and 31% businessman Piñera. "Who would you like to see as the next president?: 45% Bachelet and 37% Piñera. Working on this data, Mori projects a Bachelet victory of 53% against 47% for Mr. Piñera.

This is the last public opinion poll to be published since Chilean law imposes a 48 hours ban on all political and electoral activity before polling day which is next Sunday.

Marta Lagos from Mori said that in the final analysis it's very important to take into account the percentage that will not vote next Sunday, which means the election could be decided by "those remaining at home".

Besides Mori anticipates that of the 8.163.000 total electoral register, only 7.1 million will actually be going to the polling booths 8.163.000, harming Mr. Piñera's chances. An estimated 200.000 Conservative votes, loyal to the other defeated candidate Joaquin Lavin are forecasted to remain at home.

"The hard core conservative vote will not vote for Mr. Piñera and there are insufficient significant signs suggesting that Christian Democrats could abandon Ms Bachelet in favour of Mr. Piñera", explained Ms. Lagos.

The opinion poll was taken between January 2 and 9, in 30 Chilean cities, totalling 1.200 people registered to vote with a 3% error margin. The poll is estimated to give a clear picture of 80% of the Chilean voting population.

According to Mori's analysis, the only presidential candidates' debate for next Sunday's run off during the first week of January, added three additional points to Ms Bachelet.

Candidate Piñera's campaign headquarters brushed aside the latest Mori poll arguing its "lack of credibility" since in the 1999/2000 election, which was finally won by current president Ricardo Lagos they underscored the conservative vote by "five points".

Actually a public opinion poll from early this week contracted by the Chilean government in four of Chile's regions, (not metropolitan Santiago) shows Mr. Piñera leading in three of them with a one point difference, and Ms Bachelet taking the fourth. The 9/10 January poll included 800 people registered in the Electoral roll with a 3.5% error margin.

Thursday evening both candidates are holding their final campaign rallies, Ms. Bachelet in downtown Santiago and Mr. Piñera in Valparaiso.