MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

World tourism forecasted to grow 4/5% in 2006

The Madrid-based United Nations World Tourism Organization, UNWTO, expects world tourism, as measured by international arrivals, to grow by between 4 and 5% in 2006. In 2005 world tourism rose 5.5% to 808 million international arrivals from 766 million in 2004.

"For 2006 the current pattern of gradually slowing growth is expected to continue", with growth projected to be around one percentage point lower than in 2005 but still somewhat above the forecast long-term annual growth rate of 4.1%.

This outlook is supported by the continued good shape of the world economy in most parts of the world and the improved prospects for the Eurozone economies, in particular its most important source market Germany, says UNWTO Secretary-General, Francesco Frangialli commented "The tourism sector has gained substantially in resilience over the past years. In spite of the turbulent environment we live in nowadays, destinations worldwide added some 100 million international arrivals between 2002 and 2005."

"Although 2005 was certainly a tumultuous year, international tourism has hared amazingly well. Despite various terrorist attacks and natural disaster, such as the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami and an extraordinary long and strong hurricane season, the recovery, which started in 2004, continued firmly through 2005".

In the Americas growth reached 6% with North America (4%) and the Caribbean (5%) slightly below the regional average. Of the major destinations, the United States continued the recovery started in 2004 (8% Jan-Sep), while Mexico (8% Jan-Nov) and Cuba (13% Jan-Nov) still showed above-average increases, even after having suffered the impact of last year's devastating hurricanes.

Destinations in Central America (14%) and South America (13%), on the other hand, can look back on a very positive year. The strongest growth was reported by Venezuela (23%) and Colombia (22%), while Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua all recorded, or were on their way to record, growth rates of between 10 -20%.

Africa led the way in tourism growth with an estimated 10%. Growth in Asia and the Pacific averaged 7%, following the exceptional post-SARS rebound in 2004 (27%). North-East Asia (10%) emerged as the most dynamic sub-region with the strongest performers being Taiwan (15% Jan-Oct), China (13% Jan-Nov) and Japan (9% Jan-Nov). In South-East Asia (4%), Oceania (4%) and South Asia (4%), results overall were more modest and above all rather mixed. Among the countries affected by the December 2004 tsunami tragedy, the Maldives reported a 39% decrease up to November although the rate of decline has eased in the last months. Arrivals to Indonesia were down by nearly 9%, as the country suffered also from the October Bali bombing. Sri Lanka reported only a slight 0.4% drop, although this result may in part be attributed to the large number of Sri Lankan expatriates who visited the country in the aftermath of the tsunami and to the flow of aid workers. As for Thailand, although overall data up to June shows a 6% decline, arrivals at the Bangkok airport registered 4% growth in the period through October.

Europe recorded relatively modest growth of 4%, which is still one percentage point above the long-term trend of the region. This result can be considered very encouraging given the rather weak economy in some of its major intra-regional source markets. Moreover, due to Europe's already very large base of over 400 million arrivals, in absolute terms it recorded the largest increase corresponding to some 18 million arrivals. Growth was strongest in Northern Europe (7%), boosted by the United Kingdom (10% Jan-Nov), which was seemingly not notably affected by the London bomb attacks.

As to 2006, three major uncertainties remain for 2006 explains UNWTO. First, it is likely that terrorism will continue to be present. However, experience shows that its impact lately has been rather limited and short-lived. Travellers overall have assumed the risk and have been undeterred by external threats. Secondly, rising energy prices, inflation and interest rates might finally change the economic scenario. This has not been much of a problem until now, as the price hike has mostly been an expression of the strong economic growth and the corresponding demand for energy. Should this situation continue and affect economic growth in Asia, the tourism industry could start feeling the impact.

Finally, the further spread of avian flu could be a serious threat for the tourism sector. Avian flu has been present in the world for several years now and it is currently limited to birds and isolated cases of people living in very close contact with infected animals. As yet no transmission of the virus between humans has been detected and it is hard to say whether, when and where such a mutation will occur. For the moment there is no reason to change travel plans as long as recommendations issued by national and local health and veterinary authorities are respected.