MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Mexico: neck to neck race with electorate split in three

With just over a week to Mexico's presidential election on July 2, populist candidate Andres Lopez Obrador is emerging with an edge over Felipe Calderon from the ruling National Action Party, PAN, according to the latest public opinion surveys.

One poll published Thursday by the daily newspaper Milenio shows former Mexico City mayor Lopez Obrador from the Democratic Revolution Party, PRD, with a 35.4% support compared to 30.5% for Calderon. Roberto Madrazo from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI, which dominated Mexican politics during seven decades until 2000 when Vicente Fox was elected, figures with 29.6%.

The poll was based on interviews with 2,000 registered voters June 16-20 and had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

The survey was conducted by Maria de las Heras, one of the few pollsters to predict a win by President Vicente Fox in 2000. De las Heras noted that the latest numbers were similar to those that emerged when the candidates formally launched their campaigns in January.

In a radio interview Thursday, De las Heras attributed Lopez Obrador's lead to his campaigning since the last presidential debate on June 6 and especially to his accusation that influence-peddling by Calderon while he was energy secretary in the Fox administration helped his brother-in-law win government contracts.

Though Calderon, whose reputation for honesty had been seen as a major asset, has denied the charges, the PAN has not yet given a "complete" response, De las Heras said. "As of now, Lopez Obrador has the best possibility to win" said De las Heras.

Calderon's campaign coordinator, Juan Camilo Mourino, said the real fight now is getting supporters to the polls. "You win at the ballot box, not through phone surveys," he said.

However another poll conducted for The Dallas Morning News, Al Dia and the Mexico City newspaper El Universal shows Lopez Obrador with 36% of support among likely voters and Calderon with 34%. In third place, but still in the race is Roberto Madrazo with 26%. The poll's margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

"The poll does not say who is going to win. In voter preferences, it's a tie," said Carlos Ordonez, head of the polling operation for El Universal, who nevertheless admitted other indicators show voters leaning toward Lopez Obrador. Apparently Lopez Obrador voters say they are less likely to change their minds before the July 2 election while Calderon is slipping among crucial independent voters.

A second poll released Thursday by the University of Guadalajara gave Lopez Obrador 35.8% of the vote compared to 33.5% for Calderon. The poll was conducted June 17-18 with 2,000 registered voters. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

A third poll, from the Grupo de Economistas and Asociados, or GEA, showed Calderon with 33% of the vote and Lopez Obrador 31%. The poll was conducted June 16 to 18 with 1,600 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

The surveys are among the last to be published before the vote, since - under Mexican law - Friday is the last day polls can be disseminated.

Even at this late date, 19% of voters polled said their choice might change before election day.

Therefore candidates are scrambling for every vote, with ads by Calderon intoning voters to "think of your children" before casting ballots and Lopez Obrador keeping supporters energized with spots saying, "Smile, we're going to win."

But whoever wins it's going to be a rough six years because opinion polls anticipate that Congress, which is also elected next July 2, will be split three ways.

In the Lower House polls show PRI leading with 37%, followed by the PAN with 29.6% and PRD 29.4%. The survey also indicated that the PRI would be the main party in the Senate with 37.4%, followed by 28.6% for PRD and 28.4% for PAN.