MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Good prospects for 2006/07 South American tourism

Preliminary results for the first four months of 2006 point to some 236 million international tourist arrivals worldwide, or 10 million more than in the same period of 2005, reflecting the sustained growth in global tourism demand started in 2004.

These are the findings based on the data gathered by the United Nations specialised agency, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), for January through April 2006, as presented in the latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

Although the rate of growth has slowed slightly, in line with the forecast published in the January issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, 2006 has got off to a good start, with the first four months of the year recording a 4.5% growth in international tourist arrivals worldwide.

On a month-by-month basis, growth is estimated at 4% for both January and February, compared with the same months the previous year. March's total count was 1% down ? due to the fact that, in 2005, Easter fell in the month of March but was in April this year ? but strong demand over the 2006 Easter period resulted in an 11% rise in April.

Africa and the Middle East (both +11%), as well as Asia and the Pacific (+8%) and South America (+8%), showed faster than average growth, while Europe and the rest of the Americas grew at a more moderate pace, just under 3%.

Looking back on tumultuous times, 2006's trends so far confirm that disruptions, while definitely affecting destinations at a local level and over a specific period of time, do not alter global or regional traffic flows. Major factors contributing to the current growth trend include the favourable economic situation in key generating markets, the fact that consumer confidence remains high and, last but not least, the efforts of national administrations to develop and promote tourism.

The months of May through August comprise the most important tourism season in leading northern hemisphere destinations, such as Europe and North America. So trends in travel demand over this period often reflect longer-term marketplace trends and experts in most regions are fairly bullish about prospects for the coming four months.

This positive outlook is confirmed by the rise in the confidence index of the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts. The trend of modestly rising confidence levels already noted in the January Barometer is confirmed, as the rating for prospects has improved for the second consecutive period, up from 132 to 134 (on a scale of 0 to 200, with 100 meaning ?the same' and 150 ?better').

To quote UNWTO Secretary General, Mr. Francesco Frangialli: "International tourism has now entered a more stable phase of sustained demand without big peaks and troughs. Although the rate of growth is slowing gradually, international tourism is firmly on track to grow at a rate above the long-term average of 4% for the third year in a row now ? barring unexpected events, of course."

"There are currently three major factors that could affect this positive trend. These are terrorism, higher oil prices ?especially for aviation fuel?, and of course, the threat of an avian flu outbreak, not to mention others such as worries about the risk of an attack during a trip, the multiplication of security restrictions, stricter visa-issuance rules, restrictive immigration practices and unreasonable proliferation of "travel advisories" issued by governments to deal with it. In the case of the oil prices, experience and recent UNWTO research on the impact of higher energy prices show that the recent rise and volatility in oil prices have not noticeably influenced tourism demand, at least as far as is demonstrated by the latest data on tourist arrivals and the continued growth of air travel. And, while past oil price peaks did affect tourism negatively through the impact on the economy at large, the global economy has remained steady on this occasion and it is expected to remain strong through 2007. As for the potential avian flu pandemic, if it were to occur it would of course deal mean a severe blow to international tourism ?undoubtedly of a greater magnitude than that of the SARS outbreak in 2003. This is why UNWTO, within the UN system, is working with a network of government and industry bodies committed to making travel as safe as possible and to ensuring that the sector is fully prepared for any influenza developments." added Mr. Frangialli.

Arrivals in European destinations are estimated to have increased by 2.5% in the first four months of 2006, albeit with quite varied performances from one destination to another.

Growth in Asia and the Pacific was again one of the strongest among world regions (+7.5%). South Asia (+21%) was the most dynamic subregion following the recovery of the destinations hit by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. Much of South Asia's exceptional performance was also due in no small part to India's sustained double-digit growth (+15%).

Both North and South-East Asia increased much in line with the average of the region. Arrivals climbed by 7% in North-East Asia, with the Chinese territories of Macao (+21%) and Hong Kong (+12%) leading the way, boosted by the continued liberalisation of travel from mainland China.