MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

WMO: Antarctic ozone forecasted to recover in 2065

A new scientific assessment, released Friday by the World Meteorological Organization, WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says that the stratospheric ozone layer that protects life on Earth from excessive solar radiation will recover five to 15 years later than previously expected.

The report was prepared by over 250 international scientists

According to the WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, the ozone layer over mid-latitudes (30°-60°N and S) should recover by 2049, five years later than anticipated by the previous assessment (2002). Ozone over the Antarctic should recover by 2065, 15 years later than earlier predictions.

Because of special conditions within the Antarctic vortex (a natural cyclone of super-cold, super-fast winds), the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recur regularly for another two decades.

The later projected date of recovery over mid-latitudes is primarily the result of upward revisions in the amounts of certain chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases now contained in refrigerators and other equipment, from which much of both types will eventually be released. Higher estimates of future production levels of a CFC substitute that, although much safer, still causes some depletion, is another factor.

Recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer will take place later than previously calculated due to the greater age of air in that region. This essentially means that ozone-depleting molecules take longer to reach (and also dissipate from) the stratosphere, a factor not previously taken into account.