MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lula da Silva leads comfortably in opinion polls

The latest public opinion survey published in Sao Paulo shows Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva comfortably winning his reelection bid next October and record support for his administration's performance.

According to private pollster Datafolha, Lula in the last two weeks rebounded and now has a 49% support compared to 25% of runner up, Social Democrat candidate Geraldo Alckmin. A distant third figures radical left wing Senator Heloisa Helena Lima de Moraes with 11%, one point less than in the previous survey.

Compared to the August 7 Datafolha survey, Lula added two points, from 47%, and his main rival one, from 24%. The latest survey with a plus/minus two points error was done on August 21/22 and interviewed 6.279 people.

The surge in support for President Lula is attributed to the launching of the electoral campaign last August 15 which has been very successful in underlining his administration's social programs and the improvement in Brazil's economic fundamentals.

According to Datafolha the positive image of Lula's administration jumped seven points in two weeks, from 45% to 52%, which is a record. Since Datafolha begun surveying support for presidents and their administrations in 1987, the highest record belonged to former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995/2002) in December 1996 with 47%.

The survey also shows that the electoral ads from Lula's campaign are more effective with a 46% rating compared to 43% from his Social-democrat rival.

Datafolha argues that although both candidates have good showing rates in television, Lula 62% and Alckmin 59%, the challenger lags behind in what is the most effective electoral penetration instrument in Brazilian politics, television. With a potential audience of 120 million viewers and in a country with more TV sets than refrigerators "catching the attention in the screen is crucial" for any electoral campaign.

In spite of Alckmin insistence that he favours a "proposals" campaign to defeat President Lula da Silva, his electoral team is more inclined to begin hammering on the corruption scandals involving the ruling party and junior partners which last year shocked Brazilian public opinion.