MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Outsider set to win first round of Ecuador's presidential race

Former economy minister and college professor Rafael Correa and his independent political movement that is challenging Ecuador's traditional party politics is leading public opinion polls for next Sunday's presidential election.

"Get out and give the old parties the belt" yells Correa slamming his brown belt against the "Correamobile" truck which has become his campaign trademark playing on the pun of his name. (Correa means belt).

Correa, 43 has promised to change the constitution and reduce the power of traditional parties; he opposes a free trade agreement with the US, would cut Ecuador's ties with the World Bank and the IMF, has plans for state control over the country's natural resources and has a positive opinion of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Correa's call for change follows years of turmoil in Ecuador, a country which is the world's leading exporter of bananas plus having rich oil resources, but where popular unrest has ousted three presidents in a decade and six out of 10 people live in poverty.

Born into a middle-class family in Guayaquil, Correa, earned scholarships to foreign universities and received a doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois.

One of the latest opinion polls this week shows him ahead of his rivals with over 30% vote intention, but this result would force him to a run off in November with his nearest rival, most probably Alvaro Noboa who figures with 23% support. If no candidate wins 50% plus one vote or 40% with a ten point advantage, a run off between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 26.

Noboa, 55, is Ecuador's wealthiest man. In 1994 he inherited a business empire from his father, banana magnate Luis Noboa. Educated as a lawyer, Noboa twice reached presidential runoffs and was defeated. He promises to build housing and hospitals for the poor and says he will create jobs by encouraging his wealthy foreign friends to invest in Ecuador, besides strongly favoring a free trade agreement with United States.

Third-placed moderate Leon Roldos has 19% vote intention, but with dwindling support. However most important the survey also showed that 30% of Ecuadorian voters remained undecided.

Correa stepped into the political spotlight as an economy minister last year. But he fought with the World Bank and left office after disagreeing with President Palacio over his plan to sell debt to Venezuela. His rise in the polls has battered Ecuadorian sovereign bond prices since he does not discard a restructure of the country's foreign debt and as minister he favored investing in social programs instead of paying bonds' interest.

Ecuadorians on Sunday will be choosing a successor to President Alfredo Palacio, who was promoted from vice president by Congress after Lucio Gutierrez was ousted by legislators amid massive street protests in April 2005.

Voters will also select legislators for the 100-seat Congress, 67 provincial councilors and 664 municipal aldermen and alderwomen. Voting begins at 07:00 Sunday am and the first results should be released by 19:00 and the winner at midnight. For the first time ever over 143,000 Ecuadorians living abroad, primarily in the United States, Spain and Italy, will be able to cast absentee ballots.