MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Calderón between the devil and the deep blue see.
Mexican President Felipe Calderón, who took office on Friday, faces a tough challenge to ensure governability, caught between a party which accuses him of stealing the election and another one which would make him pay very dearly its eventual support.
He also faces an uphill battle to implement economic and political reforms that his predecessor Vicente Fox ? also from the centre-right National Action Party (PAN) ? failed to adopt in Latin America's second largest economy, where nearly a quarter of the population lives on two dollars a day. But he is also seen as a more able politician than the charismatic rancher Fox. Calderón is expected to draw a more pragmatic agenda and to steer away from Fox's policies which, according observers talking to MercoPress, did nothing but weaken the state and allow drug cartels, common crime, corruption and monopolies to become more entrenched. Calderón, 44, on July 2nd beat Mexico City governor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, of the centre-left Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). But the PRD refuses to recognize him as President and is resolved to prevent him from governing this deeply polarized nation. His victory by less than one percentage point brought back memories of US President George Bush's agonizing and controversial 0.51-percent led over Al Gore in 2000. One positive feature of the Mexican vote, however, was that 42 million people, or 58 percent of those entitled to cast ballots showed up for the election in a country where voting is not mandatory. "There was no apathy. This was an authentic election, not like in the past, when the winner was known beforehand," said Denise Dresser, of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) think tank. She was referring to the PRI, which ruled longer than any other party in the world except for the Communist Party in the former Soviet Union. Mexico, an economy heavily depending on oil, is home to a quarter of the world's 400 million Spanish-speaking people. Besides, other 25 million Mexicans live in the US, from where many of them send funds to poor relatives at home. Every year another quarter million Mexicans go to the US to live. Social inequalities in the country are deep, severely affecting most of the 13 million people who still speak one of the 62 indian languages prevailing before the Aztec empire fell in the hands of Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés in 1521.
Sleeping with the enemy López Obrador, also known by his acronym of AMLO and by his nickname of "Peje", last month held a mock taking-office ceremony attended by more than a million followers in Mexico City's main square. He even appointed a shadow cabinet. With the country's second largest party intent in preventing him from governing, Calderón has little choice but seeking accords with the third-largest ? the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ? which dominated Mexico's politics for over 70 years until being ousted by Fox in 2000. The PAN has 206 out of the Lower House's 500 seats and 52 out of the Upper House's 128 seats. The PRD has 124 and 29 and the PRI 106 and 33, respectively. OK. The PAN is conservative and the PRD is progressive. What is the PRI? "A witches' coven" encompassing virtually the whole political spectrum, from revolutionary leftists to technocrats, more or less in line with the Peronist party in Argentina. The fact that the PRI is so heterogeneous will nothing but make life harder for Calderón. "The PRI will be the power arbitrator," said Edna Jaime, of the Centre of Research for Development (CIDAC). "It will support the government's agenda only if it gets hefty resources, for instance, for its governors of for patronage." Dresser said that Mexico's "imperial system" concentrates too much power in a single person but the system is crumbling and becoming more parliamentarian. "This will force the President to include in his agenda ideas even from his worst enemies. He must tame hellish powers." Calderón should avoid committing the same mistake than Fox, who innocently sought to negotiate accords with the PRI, Dresser said. "The PRI blew up every political bridge that Fox tried to build. It is a bunch of factions who hate each other and who only want to recover their past privileges. To do that they boycotted Fox and they will boycott Calderón now." Luisa Béjar Algazi, of the Autonomous National University of Mexico (UNAM), said that if Calderón focuses his strategy only on seeking the support of the PRI, he may have to pay a higher price than if he also fathoms the PRD.
How far rebellion? The observers say that López Obrador may be going too far. "Seeking to prevent Calderón from taking office was a suicidal decision by the PRD. Accompanying AMLO's adventure is being too costly for the party. In the state of Chiapas a PRD candidate won the gubernatorial election but he accused López Obrador of actually costing him votes. And in López Obrador home state of Tabasco the PRD lost. "However, the party is still closing ranks around him and holding together," Jaime said. Béjar Algazi stated: "I think that López Obrador has not much to loose and he may attempt to recover his popularity by continuing with an irresponsible and belligerent opposition. "But the PRD is paying the cost. The common voter is far from radical stances, although it is impossible not to admit that after receiving no concrete benefits, nearly a third of the population has made him their leader." Dresser said: "López Obrador is seeking to Bolivianize Mexico and many say that in the process he is heading towards political suicide. But beware, despite his ego and his inability to admit defeat, he represents a true discontent among the people."
Oaxaca and Chiapas conflicts The Zapatista indigenous peasants have been rebelling ever since 1994 in Chiapas, a Southern jungle state, and tens of thousands of teachers have been struggling for two decades in the poor state of Oaxaca, also in the south. Could those conflicts become entangled and potentiated by López Obrador's rebellion? Observers see that as an unlikely outcome. "I think that both conflicts will eventually be solved or will fade away as people become fed up or due to lack of resources. But as long as an economic policy is not implemented to improve the life conditions of their residents, the conflicts may reemerge," Béjar Algazi said. Jaime said: "There are some connections between the three conflicts but no actual coordination has taken place. I think that they will remain focalized. "Both in Oaxaca and Chiapas there are anti-system elements. López Obrador may be very radical, but he is not against the system."
Necessary reforms One third of Mexicans think that their country is not a true democracy and are demanding deep reforms. "Calderón should also avoid committing the mistake committed by Fox, who though that democracy would consolidate by itself and that no reforms were necessary," Dresser said. Among the main reforms that should be implemented are the dismantling of monopolies such as in the oil, power, radio and TV sectors, and a labour reform to make it easier to hire and fire workers as the current law is too rigid and leads to high-costs and hence to informal labour. Also, Mexico has a highly-costly and inefficient political system. Both funding for political parties and campaign terms should be trimmed. Additionally, reelection of legislators should be allowed to foster a greater accountability before the people. And a more modern unions law should be adopted. Jaime said that also necessary is a fiscal reform as Mexico's revenue is very low, even by already low Latin American standards.
Businessmen expectations Most Mexican businessmen ? which include some of the richest in the world ? feared a López Obrador victory and hence the sheer fact of Calderón's triumph came as a windfall benefit for them. Jaime said that businessmen see Calderón in a more optimistic way than they had seen Fox. "They hailed Calderón's economic cabinet and think that he will make a good government." Béjar Algazi, however, sounded a cautious note. "Of course the businessmen expectations regarding Calderón are better than if López Obrador had been elected. But I think that businessmen don't consider the situation to be fully under control."
Relations with the US Jaime said that one of Fox's great mistakes was to focus his agenda almost entirely on seeking to regularize the situation of the Mexicans working in the US and in attempting to get a free flow of migrants. "It ended up in the wall," she said, referring to plans of the Bush administration to build a 1,300 kilometre-long wall to prevent Mexicans to cross the border. "Calderón is expected to acknowledge the full importance of the relations with the US and put more focus on trade. For instance, to pursue a NAFTA plus as the NAFTA is somewhat exhausted," Jaime said. The NAFTA, or North America Free Trade Agreement, is formed by the US, Mexico and Canada. Most Mexicans feel insulted by the wall, although they also admit that the US have the right to build it. "Look man, I hate the wall. But to tell you frankly they will build it on their own territory. So there is no complaining," a Mexico City taxi driver said. A magazine editor in the central state of San Luis Potosí said that the practice of illegally migrating to the US is so entrenched that many Mexicans consider it an "acquired right." The manager of a company manufacturing mining explosives in the central state of Zacatecas said that the wall won't prevent Mexicans from crossing as the border is actually 3,200 kilometres long, much longer than the wall. "People are already thinking about digging tunnels beneath it," a Potosí bus driver said. "Rather than a border, this is a scar."
By Guillermo Háskel - MercoPress - Zacatecas, Mexico
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