MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

String of setbacks has Kirchner down in polls but still unbeatable

Argentine president Nestor Kirchner's public opinion seems to have suffered a bashing in the last twelve months according to reports in the Buenos Aires press following a string of political setbacks for a man accustomed to sweeping victories.

The latest polls published indicate that Mr. Kirchner's standing has dropped to 57%, quite distant from the 75% he enjoyed since taking office in May 2003 and for the following two years. In the last twelve months the erosion has been of 10 points mainly because of the electoral setback in a poor northern province where he supported the reelection of an incumbent governor defeated by a citizens' anti corruption/pork barrel alliance under the command of a popular bishop and the blessing of the Catholic Church. This was followed by the scandal involving the Statistics Office and President Kirchner's determination in keeping inflation below two digits even if it meant bullying businessmen to accept price limits, temporarily suspending meat, dairy and cereal exports, or outright manipulation of figures. The office has seen the dismissal and resignation of several top officials and its creditability plummeted, which is extremely damaging for the Kirchner administration in foreign money markets, since the defaulted rescheduled Argentine sovereign bonds now have mostly interest rates linked to inflation and the economy's expansion. Every inflation index manipulated half of full percentage point means less interest payments on bonds but alienates the Kirchner administration from international markets or exposes the country's financial needs to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez oil-dollars ever willing generosity. The decision to give teachers a hefty flat basic increase, --in support of his Education Minister running for mayor of the city of Buenos Aires--, only brought havoc since a majority of provinces don't have the sufficient resources. This caused a string of strikes and rioting including the most explosive in his own turf, the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz, where he was forced to back step and even remove the governor; a conflict still ongoing and with children out of class now for over two months. Finally the corruption probe into the Swedish construction company Skanska which was awarded bloated contracts to expand gas pipelines in the midst of a serious energy crisis which the Kirchner administration refuses to admit. So far two high ranking government officials, one from the energy regulating body and another from the trust financing infrastructure have been sacked for their alleged links to illegal payments and their imminent summons to court. The Kirchner administration argument is that "it's a deal involving private companies", but it's hard for people to swallow the assertion. A big question mark remains over the whole incident because with special powers voted by Congress, the Kirchner administration is quite free to spend huge budget funds alleging "emergency situations" and a repeat, future or past, can not be absent from the imagination. With Congressional and presidential elections next October the scenario is not encouraging for the Kirchner administration, but even with diminished public opinion polls, both the president and/or his wife, so far, remain unbeatable for an atomized, tepid opposition. Interviews also show any of the two Kirchners winning in the first round with no need of a run off. The Poliarquía Consultores poll undertaken in May in Argentina's main cities shows the president with a 57% support, (12% very good and 45% good); 30% normal and only 11% decisively negative. Mr. Kirchner is stronger among men (60%), with lower education (64%) and from the interior of the country. At the other end 55% of women back the president; 45% of university graduates and 45% of Buenos Aires city voters. The total number of interviews was 800, taken in Buenos Aires City, metropolitan Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Rosario, Mendoza and Tucuman, may 1/10 with a plus/minus margin of 3.5%.