MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Two confronted visions on Latinamerica economic prospects

Dissenting views on Latinamerica future and economic prospects proved most evident during a recent Conference on the Americas sponsored by The Miami Herald and which gathered top government officials, economists and corporate leaders.

Luis Alberto Moreno, president of the Interamerican Development Bank and Mustafá Moharatem, General Motors chief economist forecasted that a new growth cycle had begun in the region which goes beyond the current global momentum and is fueled by "economic stability and overseas remittances from United States and Europe", which are helping to create a "new middle class in the region". Most experts at the conference underlined that the region has been growing at an annual 4.5%, and together with sound economic policies, hefty international reserves and a favorable political scenario, "countries are prepared for when slack years come along". US head of the State Department Hemispheric Affairs Thomas Shannon went even further and said the region was undergoing "dramatic changesâ€Ã‚¦and overall positive changes" so distant from the Americas of "our parents' times". Shannon emphasized that democracy, globalization, migration, markets integration, computer industries are the main changes of the region and even leaders criticizing "neo-liberalism" are using the "language of integration and trade". Differences between countries in Latinamerica and United States in spite of the resurgence of radical populism are "perceptions of interests" rather than "insurmountable ideological divisions", added Shannon who proudly added that "our agenda has prevailed and the hemisphere has opened to the world and mostly with our values and practices". A quick opinion poll among participants in the conference revealed that 68% believe 2008 will be an even "better year" for the region's economies with Brazil, Chile and Colombia, in that order, the star performers. However Andres Oppenheimer The Miami Herald leading columnist on regional affairs was not so optimistic about the future and points out that the excellent economic performance can be tracked very much to the massive commodities' imports by United States and China, and "very little to an increase in the region's economy competitiveness". If the US economy cools, massive imports from the two giants, US and China, will shrink and "current growth rates in the region will no longer be sustainable". Oppenheimer argues that contrary to China, India, and East Europe most Latinamerican countries have neglected education, science research, technology, foreign investments which are the main tools that have helped Asian countries reduce poverty much faster than in Latinamerica. While Asia and East Europe export mostly electronics and computers, most Latinamerican countries are saddled on booming prices for oil, soy beans and other commodities. Not surprisingly Asia since 1970 has reduced poverty from 50% to 19% while Latinamerica has only managed to bring the percentage down from 43% to 39%, according to United Nations statistics. Oppenheimer ends saying "I applaud optimism, but I much fear in Latinamerica we're in a complacent cycle".