MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Comfortable lead for Cristina K but 29% of voters undefined

Cristina Kirchner comfortably leads vote intention

With only 28 days to Argentina's presidential election incumbent candidate Cristina Kirchner comfortably leads vote intention with 39.8%, and 28 points ahead of runner up Elisa Carrió, 11.7%, but there's still 22.7% undecided.

The public opinion poll from Poliarquía Consultores was contracted by Buenos Aires daily La Nacion which emphasizes that the pollster is totally independent and does not work for President Nestor Kirchner's administration. Ranked third is former Economy minister Roberto Lavagna with 7.9% vote intention; dissident Peronist Alberto Rodríguez Sáa with 5%. All other candidates are below the 5% threshold with 22.7% undecided and 6.4% who announced they will cast a blank (protest) vote. The poll is based on 1.329 interviews in all of Argentina. "With this outlook there's no run-off" said Fabian Perechodnik from Poliarquia, contrary to what the rest of presidential hopefuls are saying. According to the Argentine two rounds electoral system the winner must reach 45% of valid votes or 40% with a ten point difference over the runner up to avoid a run-off. If the final tally in the first round is below 40%, the run off will take place November 25. However "the undefined vote is still very significant: this includes blank votes and those who will not go to the polls, 6.4% and the undecided 22.7%. This means 29.1% of the electorate with a month to go has yet to define how they will cast their vote", underlined Perechodnik. "Of this universe, a third can be expected to finally opt for Cristina Kirchner meaning she could reach 50% of the vote", added Poliarquia consultant. Contrary to popular belief the poll also showed that the First Lady is supported equally by men, 39.7% and women, 39.9%, and is most accepted by those in the 26 to 40 year section (43.1%) than among those above 61, (35.6%). Second ranked Carrió has a greater support among women, 13.9% than men, 9.2% and the opposite happens with candidate Lavagna, 9.4% of his followers are men and 6.6% women. Cristina Kirchner has a stronger support among voters with only primary education, 46.6% and drops dramatically with university graduates, 26.1%. She also has the most consolidated voters meaning that 79.2% have decided their vote and only 17.6% could still change. No other presidential hopeful comes close to that percentage. Reasons for supporting the First Lady have been tracked to "because President Kirchner did a good job", 44%; comparatively Lavagna voters underscore his "capacity and preparation" and 33.4% of Carrió's followers because they "don't want Kirchner to win". "This means Ms Carrio is seen as the most opposition candidate", said Perechodnik. Finally Mrs. Kirchner's vote ceiling is estimated in 55.3%; Elisa Carrio, 33.2% and Lavagna, 27.7%. Her positive image is 48.7%; moderate 19.9% and negative 24.1%; Lavagna is more even: 25.9%, 29.2% and 29.2% and Carrio, 28.3%, 26.9% and 36.7%. Poliarquia points out that if this tendency is finally confirmed it would signal a difference from the last five presidential elections since 1983 when Argentina recovered democracy (with the exception of 2003): in all four events the victorious candidate received support from half the electorate, Alfonsín 52% in 1983; 47%, Menem in 1989; 50% Menem in 1995 and 48% De la Rúa in 1999. Besides in three of them the opposition reaped a solid 38/40%: Italo Luder in 1983, 40%; Eduardo Angeloz, 37% in 1989 and Duhalde 38% in 1999. In 1995 opposition was split into two leading blocks with 29% and 17% of the vote, and in 2003 the Argentine electorate following the 2001/02 default was so furious that none of the five presidential candidates managed more than 22% of the vote in the first round. Concluding at the end of October Cristina Fernandez could become the first elected woman president and with the largest difference over her runner up. Actually the First Lady has a higher vote intention than all her opponents together. Secondly the percentage of undefined votes with less than a month to go is surprising.