MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Kirchner's mandate ending with serious support erosion

Pte. Nestor Kirchner

With less than two weeks before Argentina's presidential election the positive image of President Nestor Kirchner is at its lowest since taking office in May 2003, which is not necessarily good news for the incumbent candidate and First Lady, Senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Although the 45% positive image is not bad, it's far from the 83% he enjoyed during some of the best moments of his presidency, but 2007 has definitively not been a good year having lost between January and October 22 percentage points. The data was released this week by Poliarquía Consultants which elaborates a monthly public opinion poll among 800 people chosen from the main urban areas of Argentina. These include Buenos Aires City; Greater Buenos Aires; Cordoba; Rosario; Mendoza and Tucuman. The error margin is estimated in plus/minus 3.5%. "The President's image has dropped 22 points in the last ten months in a sustainable manner which makes it clearly a tendency", said Sergio Berensztein one of Poliarquia's analysts. Relative to September Kirchner's image dropped 3%. Another significant piece of information is that during the last three polls the Argentine president has had a negative image of 19%, the highest ever in his four year mandate. At times, more precisely, June 2003, his negative image was just one percentage point. Another 34% of interviews declared the performance of Kirchner as "unsatisfactory". According to Berensztein factors influencing the negative tendency of the last ten months is mainly four: insecurity (rampant crime); inflation; a growing feeling of corruption and the energy crisis. "His positive image begins to erode in January when inflation crops as an issue followed by the scandal at Indec (Statistics and Census Office), when allegedly cost of living indexes begun to be "cosmetically manipulated" and Indec loyal staff fired or replaced". When asked about the performance of President Kirchner, 9% replied very good; 36%, fair, while 34% unsatisfactory; 11% bad and 8% very bad. Kirchner's image standing is better among those below 29 and over 50 with basic education only. However it falls significantly in the 29/49 age band with secondary and tertiary education. Nevertheless Kirchner is one of the Argentine presidents who have enjoyed the highest approval ratings. Two months in office, June/July 2003 he had a positive image of 83%. "It's true that 45% positive image is still a good rating. But we must not only look at the picture. The video shows him in a clear negative tendency, particularly since the beginning of this year", underlined Berensztein. Regarding Mrs Kirchner possibilities, opinion polls coincide that on October 28 she will take the day with no need for a run off. According to Argentine electoral rules the presidential ticket winner needs 45% of the vote or 40% and a ten point difference over the runner up, which seems to be the case.