MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Polls show Kirchner couple retaining office next Sunday

No run off insight for Cristina

All Argentine public opinion polls released over the weekend show the incumbent candidate First Lady Cristina Kirchner winning the presidential election next Sunday with no need for a run off although in the last few days opposition candidates advanced 8.3 percentage points in vote intention.

The latest poll from Poliarquía Consultants, contracted by Buenos Aires daily La Nacion and the only pollster with no links to the government, revealed that Cristina Kirchner currently has 40.9% vote intention, a modest climb or 1.1 percentage point from previous interviews, which anyhow under Argentine electoral rules (45% of votes or 40% plus 10 points difference over the runner up) is indicating that on December 10, President Kirchner will be handing the sash to his wife, the first elected woman president in Argentine history. The latest Poliarquia public opinion poll covered a universe of 1.288 cases and was finished last October 16. Compared to the previous poll from September 30, the percentage of undecided dropped from 22.7% to 13.2%, which means 9.5% have in the last fortnight made up their mind on a candidate. With only seven days left, Mrs Kirchner and her 40.9%, is followed, 26.4 points behind, by left leaning Elisa Carrió from the Civic Coalition with 14.5%; former Economy minister Roberto Lavagna, 10.8% and the traditional Peronist candidate Alberto Rodriguez Saá, 7.2%. However, according to Argentine press reports, the Kirchner administration is concerned that in the last fifteen days there is growing tendency to cut the difference between Cristina and her main opponents, but the distance still is significant, time is short, and all indicates the First Lady wins in the first round. "We can reasonably say that a run off scenario is currently very difficult", said Fabian Perechodnik, Director of Poliarquia. "The election is practically defined, unless something excepcional happens", he added. Since the September 30 poll, Mrs Kirchner who then registered 39.8% vote intention, advanced 1.1%; Carrió (11.7%) advanced 2.8%; Lavagna (7.9%) climbed 2.9% and Rodriguez Saá added 2.2 percentage points. "The undecided dropped ten points from 22.7% to 13.2% and the difference was split 1.1% for Cristina and the rest, 8.3%, for the opposition candidates", indicated Perechodnik. Definitions are expected to pick up speed in the last week. But those voting blank or cutting their ballot remained at 6.4%. The candidate which most advanced was Rodriguez Saá who jumped 50% and now stands with 7.2% of vote intention. Poliarquia points out that the two ladies leading are virtually equal in Argentina's capital Buenos Aires City with 19.7% and 18.9% respectively, which is evidence of Mrs Kirchner's difficulty to attract middle class voters in urban conglomerates. Rosendo Fraga a distinguished Argentine historian and political scientist forecasts that "Cristina's victory in the country' poor provinces will be overwhelming", but the First Lady faces the greatest resistance middle class sectors of the large cities such as Buenos Aires, Rosario, Cordoba and Mar del Plata". However Cristina is strong in the 18/25 years age group with 46.7% support, mainly among those with elementary schooling, 55.5%. Vote intention among university undergraduates and graduates of that age group drops to 26%. Ms Carrió has a robust vote intention among women and together with Lavagna are the candidates who most attract tertiary education groups, 20.1% and 17.8% respectively. Poliarquia also shows that the electoral cap of Mrs Kirchner has risen since the last September poll from 55 to 55.5%. Ms Carrió advanced from 33.2% to 35.9%; Lavagna's 27.7 to 29.1% and Rodríguez Saá, 14.7 to 18.8%. Similarly 80.1% of those who intend to vote for Mrs Kirchner is definitively decided, while this percentage stands at 66.9% for Rodriguez Saá; 56.7% for Ms Carrió and 53.1% for Lavagna. When asked specifically who is next Sunday's winner in the presidential election 76.3% said Cristina Kirchner; 3.6%, Ms Carrió; 3%, Lavagna 3% and Rodriguez Saá 2.2%. A residual 12.9% said they did not know or did not reply. Eduardo Fidanza, sociologist from Poliarquía said that given current circumstances, Cristina's victory next Sunday is almost granted with a vote support ranging between 40 and 50%. Nevertheless the latest poll was finished three days before the unsolved killing of three Argentine policemen, which has shocked Argentina and targets the Kirchner administration's weakest point, crime and insecurity for law abiding citizens. A veteran officer and two rookies, on night duty in a depot with no known assets of value, were shot several times and later viciously stabbed. A stunned President Kirchner argued it could be intentionally linked to the election campaign, but for public opinion it was evidence of the government's inability to impose law and order, and protect the human rights of the average citizen in the street. A blow for an administration that has built an international reputation on a human rights record of taking to court military and police officers allegedly involved in killings and torture during the last dictatorship (1976/1983).