MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

US optimistic about an agreement on the Doha round

US Trade Representative Susan Schwab

United States Trade Representative Susan Schwab said Monday in Singapore that the Doha round of global trade negotiations is “not dead” and an agreement could be reached in the next 14 months.

There's "every reason to expect" the Doha round can be concluded before President George W. Bush leaves office in January 2009. "The Doha round is not dead, it keeps advancing" she told reporters in the ASEAN summit (Association of South East Asian Nations). The Doha round talks have stalled because the U.S. and Europe won't lower farm subsidies fast enough, while developing nations including India, Brazil and South Africa say they would have to cut industrial tariffs more than developed countries. The U.S. last month criticized India, Brazil and other large developing nations, saying their proposal to exempt a broad range of industrial goods from tariff cuts could destroy trade negotiations. "We cannot compromise on the subsistence and livelihoods, given the key issues" India's Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said earlier this month. "It's just not negotiable". More than half of India's 1.1 billion population depend on agriculture for their living. While the talks have centered on agriculture, the focus shifted to industrial tariffs this year after the U.S. and EU got close to an agreement on a formula for agriculture subsidy and tariff cuts. Trade in services is also part of the agenda and includes foreign investment in banking, express delivery and telecommunications. It also includes rules for granting short-term entry visas to professional workers, according to the WTO. The U.S. has in the past demanded that India allow overseas insurers a bigger stake in joint ventures. The Indian government, which limits foreign insurers' stakes at 26%, has promised to raise the limit to 49%. In spite of her optimism Schwab added that "what I can't do" is bring home an agreement "that I can't, in good conscience, recommend to the President or the Congress; we've been moving in the right direction with unfortunately some exceptions. Some countries aren't inclined to make a contribution commensurate with their level of development". Schwab said that "there's a very realistic prospect'' the trade talks can succeed. "It's eminently doable in this timeframe, within this administration". The European Union Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson recently expressed a similar optimistic view forecasting an agreement in early next year. Similarly developing countries were quoted stating that a Doha round understanding is "at the reach of a hand".