MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

World rice harvest and trading heading for a record year

World rice production is projected at a record 421.2 million tons (milled basis) in 2007/08, up less than 1% from a year ago, while global rice trading is forecasted to reach 29.6 million tons, up 3%, according to the latest reports from the US Department of Agriculture.

China accounts for the largest share of the 2007/08 global production increase. In addition, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, Japan, Argentina, the United States, and Uruguay are projected to harvest larger crops in 2007/08. In contrast, India, Australia, North Korea, South Korea, and Turkey are projected to harvest smaller crops. This year's larger global production is due to larger plantings with average yield unchanged from a year earlier. Global yields have been nearly flat since late 1990s, and growth rates achieved in the 1990s were much lower than those achieved in the 1970s and 1980s. Despite record global production, global rice supplies are projected to increase less than 1% in 2007/08 to 498.4 million tons, the second consecutive year of fractional growth in global rice supplies. Global supplies remain 9% below the 2001/02 record of 546.6 million tons. Global rice disappearance is projected at a record 424.2 million tons, an increase of more than 1% from a year earlier. China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh account for most of the expected increase in global rice disappearance. Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 74.1 million tons, 4% below a year earlier and the smallest since 1983/84. The global stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 17.5%, the smallest since 1976/77. Global stocks are down almost 50% since the 2000/01 record of 147.3 million tons. China accounts for most of the decline in global ending stocks since 2000/01. Global rice trade in 2008 is projected at 29.6 million tons, up 3% from a year earlier and the highest on record. South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania are all projected to increase imports in 2008. In contrast, Southeast Asia is projected to import less rice in 2008. By country, Iraq, Bangladesh, Australia, Afghanistan, Cuba, China, and the Philippines are all projected to increase imports by 100.000 tons or more in 2008. The increases will partially be offset by weaker imports by Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and Haiti. Imports are projected to be unchanged in 2008 for Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal. On the export side, Thailand, Vietnam, and China account for most of the expected increase in global exports in 2008. In addition, Uruguay, Egypt, and the United States are expected to export more rice in 2008. In contrast, India, Australia, and Guyana are projected to reduce exports in 2008, with Australia's shipments the lowest since 1962. Exports by Cambodia are projected to remain at the 2006 near-record high. Argentina's exports are projected to be unchanged in 2008 as well. The United States 2007/08 U.S. rough-rice crop is estimated at 197.9 million cwt, up 2% from a year ago, but still 15% below the 2004/05 record. California and Louisiana account for most of the 2007/08 increase in U.S. rice production. This year's larger rice crop is the result of a record yield. At 7,247 pounds per acre, the 2007/08 average yield is almost 6% higher than a year ago. Yields are higher in every reporting State except Texas, with record yields estimated for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. In contrast, U.S. plantings declined 3% to 2.75 million acres, a result of strong prices for competing crops and very high fuel and fertilizer prices. Arkansas and Missouri account for the bulk of the area decline. Total U.S. rice supplies in 2007/08 (August-July) are projected to be up slightly from a year earlier, as the larger crop and record imports more than offset a smaller carrying At 258.7 million cwt, total supplies are 1.4 million cwt above last year. At 9.3 million cwt, beginning stocks in 2007/08 are 9% below a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for the entire decline. Imports are projected at a record 21.5 million cwt, up more than 4% from 2006/07, with both long- and medium/short-grain imports the highest on record. Imports have more than doubled over the last 10 years, and are growing as a share of the domestic market. Thailand supplies more than 60 percent of all U.S. rice imports.