MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Potential “cold war” with Russia over the Arctic in EU agenda

Climate change could lead Europe into a conflict with Russia, according to a report from Europe's foreign policy leaders. The report won't be officially presented to the European Council until Friday, but it's already all over the media.

Apparently Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European Council's foreign policy chief and the European commissioner for external relations respectively, warn that competition for energy and the "threat multiplier" of climate change is likely to produce "potential conflicts". "Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability. The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone. The risks include political and security risks that directly affect European interests". The report cites several examples of climate-linked conflict, including fighting over resources in Darfur, migration due to flooding in Bangladesh, and arguments over who owns the energy riches of the Arctic. "A further dimension of competition for energy resources lies in potential conflict over resources in Polar regions which will become exploitable as a consequence of global warming" says the report with the resulting new strategic interests "illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North Pole". A Russian scientific expedition planted a flag on the ocean floor a few months ago, staking a symbolic claim to the resource-rich region. President Vladimir Putin decorated the three-man team with "Hero of Russia" medals. The report suggests that the EU develops an Arctic policy based on the "evolving geo-strategy of the Arctic region, taking into account ... access to resources and the opening of new trade routes", and recommends the EU focus more attention on security risks related to climate change using the U.N. Security Council and the Group of Eight major industrialized powers. It cited a host of regional examples of the increased prospect of conflict caused by the reduction of arable land, water shortages, dwindling food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts which were already occurring. "Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure", the report said, as millions of "environmental migrants" flee poverty, poor health and unemployment, risking increased conflicts in transit and destination areas. Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner said climate change could increase instability in failed or failing states, stoking tensions between ethnic and religious groups and political radicalization.