MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Former bishop retains lead in Paraguay's presidential race

With five days for next Sunday's Paraguay's presidential election former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed, according to a public opinion poll published on Ultima Hora Sunday's edition.

Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo's, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. The COIN consulting group surveyed 2,160 people nationwide during the first half of April. The group did not report the poll's margin of error. Although Mr. Lugo has consistently been leading, the runner up race has been too close to call. A poll in early April by First Analysis and Studies showed Lugo with a slightly larger 6.2 percentage point lead over his closest rival, Ovelar. At the same time, a survey by Ati Snead consultancy showed Lugo with a 10 point advantage over Oviedo. The former bishop is supported by a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Ms Ovelar was Education minister in President Duarte's cabinet and she is the first woman to run for president. Oviedo (a former Colorado strongman) was jailed for five and a half years for plotting a failed coup in the mid-1990s. He launched his candidacy after the Supreme Court overturned his prison sentence last year. On Sunday April 20, the Paraguayan electorate will be choosing president, both legislative chambers and municipal governments. There's no run off for president so if Mr Lugo wins he could have problems forming a coalition in Congress, although the ruling Colorado party was seriously split during the primaries and dissidents could be willing to give governance. Paraguay is a landlocked country of 6 million people, one of the poorest of South America, known for corruption, contraband and occasional outbreaks of violence. Exports are mainly commodities (soybeans, beef, skins, etc) and energy from hydroelectric resources shared with Brazil and Argentina. However most of the farmland is in few hands and the dominating elite from the Colorado party. As in other Latinamerican countries the time for changes by democratic means could finally be reaching Paraguay.