MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Uruguay's ruling coalition leads in vote intention with 42%

Uruguay's ruling coalition leads vote intention with a solid 42%, seven points ahead of the main opposition party, Nacional with 35%, according to a public opinion poll from consultants Cifra which was released on Monday.

Cifra points out that even when there's still over a year before the coming presidential election (October 2009), "Uruguayans are warming up for next year" and an impressive 85%, 8 out of ten interviews were prepared to say for whom they would vote if elections were held now, "and this when the different parties have yet to agree on candidates". Vote intention was 42% for the ruling Broad Front; 35% for the Nacional party; 7% for the Colorado party and 1% for the Independent Party. Those undecided or who did not reply were the remaining 15%. "The Broad Front leads, although what is most outstanding is that Uruguay remains divided in two halves, on the one side the left and on the other the rest. So following on these percentages even if the elections were to be held now (August 2008 and not in 14 months time), it' is still not clear what could happen", points out Cifra. And inside the ruling coalition, two leaders emerge clearly, former Agriculture minister and Senator Jose Mujica and Economy minister Danilo Astori. Although primaries are still a few months away and officially there are no hopeful candidates for the ruling coalition, among the 42% who support the Broad Front, "spontaneous replies" (no list of names) show Senator Mujica with 51% of preferences and Astori, 35%. The rest remain undecided or would vote some other candidate, according to Cifra. President Tabare Vazquez has repeatedly suggested that Mr. Astori would make an excellent presidential candidate, but Mr. Mujica and his political sector, MPP, senior in the coalition, are campaigning for their own pre candidate, most probably with the purpose of disputing the primary. Cifra's latest percentages are in line with other polls which show the ruling coalition with 42/43% of vote intention, followed by the opposition National party, 32 to 36%. If these percentages remain it is indicative that in October 2009 the Uruguayan electorate will face a first election and a run-off in November since none of the parties will be able to muster 50% plus one of votes cast. The Cifra poll interviewed 1.003 people at their homes, between July 19 and 27, covering the whole Uruguayan territory.