MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Following four bullish years UN forecasts tourism industry downturn

The United Nations World Tourism Organization said Wednesday that international vacation travel could drop 2% this year as the global crisis worsens. This will be particularly evident following the bullish years, 2004/07 when growth averaged 7%.

Opening the ITB Travel Trade Show in Berlin, WTO Secretary General Taleb Rifai, underscored that “tourism means trade, jobs, development, cultural sustainability, peace and the fulfilment of human aspirations”.

“If ever there was a time to get this message out loud and clear, it is now, as we meet at a time of overriding global uncertainty, but also of immense possibilities”, added Mr. Rifai who urged G-20 leaders to include tourism as a key component of their economic stimulus programs and the Green New Deal.

Rifai said that the tourism industry started to deteriorate in mid-2008. While WTO figures show international arrivals hit a record 924 million last year with an annual growth of 2%, the second half of the year tracked the monthly decline in macroeconomic results and forecasts.

“Arrivals experienced negative growth of 1% during last six months of 2008. The same is true of international receipts: record highs till mid-2008 but rapidly declining second-half growth. This is an indication of the trend forecasted for the current year. This is the reality”, emphasized Mr. Rifai.

Furtheron he said “it is not possible” to determine how long the global economic downturn would last or what its full impact would be on the tourism industry. “What is clear is that tourism can play a critical role in the recovery process as a sector with a unique resurgence capacity and an immense potential in terms of employment creation and sustainability,” he said.

The tourism industries in Europe and the Americas have been the hardest hit due to the effects of the recession, while the sector in Asia and the Pacific region is expected to experience a slower rate of growth during the course of the year. Africa and the Middle East are also predicted to see a modest growth in their respective tourism industries. Rifai said Europe's likely decline could be partially offset by a boon in new tourism from China. Some 45 million Chinese traveled abroad in 2008, and China hopes to double that number by 2012.