MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
“Failed” education anticipates “populist” governments in Uruguay
Pepe Mujica, a candidate with an “ambiguous” speech and “populist” tendency Education in Uruguay has “failed” and the composition of the electorate has “changed dramatically”, an ideal mix for “populist proposals” said economist Ernesto Talvi, head of the social and economics think tank Ceres based in Montevideo.
His remarks during a meeting on Wednesday with officers of some of Uruguay’s main corporations were seen as a reference to the leading presidential hopeful of the ruling coalition, Senator Jose Mujica, whose speech and presentations, Talvi described as “ambiguous”.
Next June 28 Uruguayan political parties are holding their primaries and the ruling Broad Front has two main pre-candidates, Mujica and former Economy minister Danilo Astori, currently in hospital with pneumonia. Businessmen tend to prefer Astori whom they consider more predictable and experienced, although Mujica has the “charm and the votes”.
According to Talvi the Uruguayan society has changed radically in the last 25 years because of the failure of the educational system and emigration of the most talented and qualified, which he said “opens the way for populist proposals”.
He said that in 1985, an estimated 82% of Uruguayans supported “middle class” values (hard work, good education, savings and goal contraction), but that percentage has now fallen to 67%. Similarly while in 1985, the “excluded” groups (personal efforts lead nowhere, possibilities of climbing socially are non existent and highly dependent on handouts from the government) represented 16%, in 2008 it had doubled to 32%.
A third position, the self-proclaimed “aristocrats” (positions in life are inherited) percentage remained unchanged.
According to Talvi’s lineal presentation, “excluded groups” prefer populist electoral options, whether from the left or the right; “aristocrats” are naturally conservative and the middle class are inclined to the centre, left or right.
But as the excluded increase, they do so by advancing on the middle class, thus changing the composition of the Uruguayan electorate.
Therefore “we shouldn’t be surprised at the emergence, and successfully, of atypical candidates regarding language, attitude and clothing”, which was seen as a direct reference to candidate Mujica by opposition to the jacket and tie candidates, including Astori.
“Currently the electorate with a tendency to the populist proposals stands at 31% and if they manage to convince just one third of the middle class, it’s enough for the 51% majority needed” to win in the first round, thus avoiding a run off a month later.
However said this, Talvi admitted “it’s too early to know who will win the ruling coalition primaries and we can’t anticipate that if the Broad Front wins, the new government will effectively be inclined to populism”.
But the chances of a government clearly populist are contained “by the middle class vote and because the decision making process inside the Broad Front is limited by the broad scope of groups” inside the catch-all coalition.
More apocalyptical economist Talvi concluded that looking to the rest of the South American continent and its rash of populism, if the next Uruguayan government is not populist, “it could very well happen in the near future”.
Finally he said that to modify the current reality, among other things, “we must address the grave failure of the educational system, starting from the basic primary school”.
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Read all commentsI believe that Talvi is correct in his assumptions about the country’s new ethical system. At one time, Uruguay was a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Europe who, through education, hard work, and determination, built up their new home to a level above their neighbors countries in South America. At one time, Uruguay was the shining example of democracy thriving on continent that is frequently plagued by civil unrest, poverty, and war. In essence, with its largely European population and work ethic, Uruguay closely resembled the United States and its way of life.
May 28th, 2009 - 11:24 pm 0Because of the economic downturn, my parents and I immigrated to the United States. Today, I have a graduate degree and earn more than most my native-born American colleagues. I say this only to highlight the point made in the article; that most of Uruguay’s skilled labor force has left and that the opportunities I have enjoyed in the US would not have been afforded to me in Uruguay. The country has failed to give those with talent and ambition the kinds of opportunities that can be found in the US.
When my parents and I lived there, our daily ethics revolved around self-reliance and education. I was raised to rely on my talents and to cultivate new skills in order to become successful. The case today in Uruguay seems to be more about what the government can do for you. This newfound attitude is symptomatic of a left-leaning population.
Uruguay, with its small population (3.5 million), rich natural resources, educated workforce, and traditionally structurally sound democratic system should have no trouble keeping its population prosperous. However, the wave of socialism and populism and South America has tainted this country as well. Electing someone like Mujica, who is obviously less qualified but more receptive to the complaints of those who want the government to pay their way through life, is a mistake that will set the country back.
Remember that socialism and communism only breed mediocrity and complacency.
Charles, well writtten, but you forgot a couple of things.
May 30th, 2009 - 12:59 pm 01. The other attempts at making socialism and or communism work or succeed have been utter failures, unless like Norway you produce more oil than you have population, or China where you have rampant capitialism fueled by slave labor.
2. Finer minds and devoted parties have failed to make it work over the last 100 years. Each and every attempt has ended in failure to raise the standard of living when a socialist economy is planned and executed.
There are of course the countries that tout socialism while using free markets to propagate and fund failed economic policies, like paying people to not work or go to school. Good on you Charles.
CERES is biased by the right wing in Uruguay.
Jun 02nd, 2009 - 06:45 am 0I believe if Ceres want to take a political stand has every right to do it, but to pretend to mask it as a study is a joke.
They represent the bourgeois of Uruguay and they are worried to be taxed and the unions to defend their salary. Even in Uruguay where radical positions have no chance.
The use of the word populist is a way of denigrating when goverments with lower classess support come to power -note lower uneducated people created by free market policies that collapsed our factories 20 years ago-. I also would like to mention that not all educated work force has fleed the country, as the vibrant software industry, the Pasteur institute of Montevideo, Zona America etc. and that is a very nice please to live as well. This is the experience of an emmigrant to the US, so is biased as well. And is very wrong in what he said, there is a lot of hard working people, just like he proclaim himself to be, that works and lives here. Shame on him, to take the narrowminded view of many in his adoptive country.
The usual parrows that repeat that socialism do not work in the social democratic version, respecting freedoms and free enterprises but subject to regulation, evidently does not know how Sweden the country next to norway work-with not oil-. And more or less the core countries of Europe are like this. They forget that by giving salaries to the population you stimulate demand as well.
Why an economist is taking about politics in the first place?? Ceres should just say, we want to do business because we live very well like this, and we are afraid this bunch of ignorant and underpaid people make win the elections, lets call their candidate the Populista to start with. Our candidates are serious people indeed. Note, I am not myself a supporter of Mujica myself, but i am sick of the rethoric mask of the right!!
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