MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Global flu pandemic but no A/H1N1 vaccines until September

A/H1N1 is the first flu pandemic in 41 years; the last in 1968 killed one million people.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared on Thursday a global flu pandemic after holding an emergency meeting. This means the influenza A/H1N1 virus is spreading in at least two regions of the world with rising cases being seen in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile.

WHO Director General Dr Margaret Chan said the move does not mean the virus is causing more severe illness or more deaths. The H1N1 virus first emerged in Mexico in April and has since spread to 74 countries. Official reports say there have been nearly 30,000 cases globally and 141 deaths with figures rising daily.

Meanwhile influenza vaccine manufacturers are speeding up production to make the billions of doses of vaccine that will be needed to protect against the newly declared H1N1 pandemic.

Work on developing an H1N1 vaccine is already under way at leading companies, whose factories will be ready to switch to making a pandemic shot in around two weeks' time, when normal season flu vaccine production is complete.

“Our recommendation is they need to finish the seasonal vaccine and then move over” Dr. Chan told reporters in Geneva who added that there would be no H1N1 vaccine ready before September.

Drug makers have obtained the new influenza A (H1N1) seed virus in the past two weeks but they still don't know how much vaccine they will be able to manufacture, since this depends on how easily the new virus strain grows in chicken eggs.

WHO has estimated vaccine makers could produce up to 4.9 billion pandemic flu shots a year in the best-case scenario, though this will still not be enough for the entire world population of more than 6.5 billion, particularly if it turns out that people need more than one injection to gain immunity.

The H1N1 vaccine now being developed by companies must be tested first on ferrets and then on humans in clinical trials before regulatory authorities can approve it. Dr. Chan said regulatory authorities needed to work together help fast-track approval. Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis are the pharmaceutical companies better placed to meet the challenge of a pandemic

This is the first flu pandemic in 41 years - the last in 1968 killed about one million people. However, the current pandemic seems to be moderate and causing mild illness in most people.

Most cases are occurring in young working age adults and a third to a half of complications are presenting in otherwise healthy people.

Dr Chan said: “We have evidence to suggest we are seeing the first pandemic of the 21st century. Moving to pandemic phase six does not imply we will see increased in deaths or serious cases.”

She added it was important to get the right balance between complacency and vigilance and that pandemic strategies would vary between countries depending on their specific situation.

WHO do not recommend closure of borders or any restrictions on the movement of people, goods or services. But the picture could change very quickly.

“No other pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely,” Dr Chan said.

One factor which has prompted the move to a level six pandemic was that in the southern hemisphere, the virus seems to be crowding out normal seasonal influenza. The move was not prompted by the situation in any one country but the reports of several pockets of community spread, officials said.

Experts have warned that poorer nations, especially those in the southern hemisphere now heading into their winter season, face the greatest risk from the flu pandemic.

Drug companies have already secured some large orders for H1N1 vaccine from governments in Europe and North America, and fresh ones are expected now that the WHO has declared H1N1 a full-blown “phase 6” pandemic.