MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

June 28 is signalling the end of the Kirchner couple hegemony

The Argentine mid term election has boiled down to two names Nestor Kirchner and De Narvaez, competing in the province of Buenos Aires

The hegemonic leadership of the Kirchner couple in Argentina, prevalent since 2003, could be coming to and end following on Sunday June 28th mid term elections, according to several Buenos Aires pollsters and political analysts.

Three of the main public opinion polls consultants said that “it’s very difficult” to advance numbers regarding the election results, but what is certain is that the Kirchner’s grouping will loose its absolute majority in Congress, which anticipates a completely different ball game ahead of the 2011 presidential election.

“We are witnessing the end of the prolific cycle of the Kirchner name. The specific weight of only two years ago” when President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner took over from her husband, Nestor Kirchner “has diluted” said Jorge Giacobe.

“Evidence of this is that many local leaders are leaving the “K” network, other strong figures are throwing their names into the presidential hopefuls ring and other drums are beating in the opposition for so many years overwhelmed”, added Giacobe.

Next June 28th half of the Argentine 257 Lower House seats and a third of the Senate will be renewed and the Kirchner couple needs a significant return of seats to retain the majority with which they have been accustomed to rule. Deputies are elected according to proportional representation and there are three Senate seats for each of the 24 provinces. On that day provincial legislatures and city councils will also be up for grabs.

The three pollster and analysts, Giacobe, Graciela Römer and Rosendo Fraga also coincided that the coming elections will be decided in the province of Buenos Aires which accounts for 38% of the Argentine electorate, and where Mr. Kirchner is aggressively campaigning.

The three analysts coincide that there is a “great parity” in vote intention between Mr. Kirchner and his opponent Francisco de Narvazez who head the Deputies lists in the province of Buenos Aires.

“Even if the government wins it already has lost positions in Parliament. On June 28th we will be seeing a great primary election which will help outline the names and leaderships for the 2011 presidential elections”, said Römer.

Fraga said that the “province of Buenos Aires tends to set the political beat for the rest of the country”.

So significant is this that “on the night of June 28th we will be facing an interpretation conflict” of the outcome of the election. “In Argentina winning in the province of Buenos Aires could leave a defeat at national level in the back bench”.

Public opinion polls are showing that Mr. Kirchner and Mr. Narvaez are almost even in the lower thirty percentages (33% to 31%).

Mr. Kirchner even winning by a vote in the province of Buenos Aires will hail it as a victory and the opposition will argue that the Kirchner couple has lost at least ten points from their last electoral showing, which includes loss of control in Congress and in the major electoral circumscriptions, including the powerful legislature of the Buenos Aires province.

In practical terms this means that if Mr. Kirchner garners 33% of the vote the two main opposition forces will be totalling at least 50%. However sometimes, according to Mr. Fraga they spend more time attacking each other instead of reaching a minimum agenda agreement for when the next congress meets.

The legislative agenda, according to Mr Fraga should refer to some of the institutional issues which were repeatedly defeated when the Kirchner had an absolute majority: super powers, economic emergency, naming the Magistrates council and the ongoing controversy with farmers over export duties.

“The opposition has the option of becoming two minorities or one majority, they will have to work it out”, added Fraga who said that if recent history is a guide back in the 1997 mid term elections, the ruling Peronist party retained 36% of the vote, or simple majority, but then the two main opposition forces pragmatically joined opening the way for the victory of President Fernando De la Rúa in 1999.

But, concludes Mr. Fraga looking ahead to 2011 the big question is not if the opposition can effectively win, based on June 28th results, but rather will they be able to rule with a fractured, volatile political system.