MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Uruguayan opposition seals presidential ticket in surprising vote turnout

A strong show of unity from the National party with the presidential ticket Lacalle, Larrañaga.

Jose Mujica from the ruling coalition, Luis Alberto Lacalle and Pedro Bordaberry from the opposition are the three candidates that will be disputing Uruguay’s presidency next October following their comfortable victories on Sunday’s political parties’ primaries. The “picture” resulting from June 28th results also helped to visualize what could happen in October and if a November run-off will be needed.

That picture shows that the main opposition National party and its candidate former president Lacalle, (68), managed a surprising leap forward over the incumbent Mujica, (74), and the catch-all Broad Front.

The turn-out vote was almost equal to that of the Broad Front and at the same night of celebration in the party’s headquarters Lacalle sealed the presidential ticket with his rival Senator Jorge Larrañaga during an open press conference.

Senator Mujica, a former guerrilla leader, was unable to accomplish a similar feat with runner-up economist Danilo Astori, --who acknowledged defeat but with no congratulations--, evidence of the ongoing internal squabbling inside the ruling coalition since both declared, over a year ago, they were presidential hopefuls.

In a speech where he insisted that “what is good for Uruguay, is good for the National party”, Lacalle underlined the party’s unity (all exchanges of the exhausting primary competition “have been settled”), praised Larrañaga for his fighting spirit, and anticipated victory, together with the other opposition forces, in November.

Sunday’s turnout also showed the National Party above the 40% threshold, almost equal to the Broad Front which for the last ten years has been the main force in Uruguayan politics. Although voting in primaries is not compulsory, contrary to national elections, and Sunday’s results are only a “picture” of a given moment, the fact the National party managed such a percentage, added to the other opposition parties, means a November run-off is in the calendar.

Senator Mujica in his acceptance speech begun by underlining that “in this stage is missing a companion who is ill” in reference to Astori who spent the last month hospitalized with pneumonia.

“We need, and very much, his presence, his commitment, his participation for all what he represents, he had done and will have to do in the future”, added Mujica who called on followers to remember that the coming October election is an “electoral dispute”. Voters of other parties are also “compatriots, on other paths, but compatriots whom we have to convince and also are the future”.

He emphasized that belonging to the Broad Front means “generosity, openness, no hatred, no rancour”. Mujica went on to say that in the US they have a coloured president, in Brazil a union leader, in Bolivia an indigenous, and “everybody must understand I represent those who come from under, and I’m proud and committed to them”

But Mujica also knows he needs the orthodox economist Astori or someone he nominates to make a presidential ticket that can also be attractive and palatable to the Uruguayan conservative middle class.

Astori was hand picked by President Tabare Vazquez to succeed him, but Mujica openly disputed the decision and since then began working hard for a network of alliances and pragmatic “easy talk” that helped him win comfortably, 54% to 38%, over his more literate, pompous and with a certain flair of arrogance rival orthodox economist.

The dispute turned nasty from the Astori side. Firstly they mocked Mujica’s lack of university education, then that he didn’t look, dress, talk or act “presidential” and finally he’s complete ignorance of economics and ideology. The grudging fight ended with Astori in hospital overworked and with pneumonia, unable to be present in the last five weeks of the primary campaign.

The fact the cumbersome Broad Front was unable to announce its ticket on the same night the primary was over is seen as a negative signal for Mujica’s chances by most political analysts. It simply confirms the strong rivalry and inside fighting, in spite of the pictures’ smiles and nice words, remains as strong as ever. Not even President Tabare Vazquez, now a lame duck, has the seniority to bridge an understanding.

The primary results showed Mujica 54% and Astori, 38% and a distant third hopeful Marcos Carámbula, 8%. In the National Party, Lacalle 54% and Larrañaga 46%, while in the Colorado Party the landslide was for Bordaberry with 77% of the vote. However in vote turnout the Colorado party only managed 10.8%.

The results were in line with what was anticipated by the different pollsters. However they did miss, and widely, the percentage of the electorate that would effectively turn out on Sunday: the original estimate was 55%, but only 40% did so. Uruguayan pollsters have some difficulties with elections when they are not compulsory as happens with national elections. In this case it was alleged that the very cold day and the beginning of winter holidays kept voters away or absent. But one of the most serious pollsters openly admitted the error. ”We improved the calculation system, (from 65% to 55%) but obviously it's still incomplete“, said political scientist Eduardo Gonzalez from Cifra consultants.

Another factor pointed out by González was that for the first time in a Uruguayan primary election, there was a considerable number of blank, annulled or non valid votes, which is indicating ”some form of protest towards the political system, or the primary selection process“.

Another reason could be that Broad Front voters did not turn out in the numbers expected and in accordance with their militancy because it was a ”non attractive” dispute since Mujica for several weeks consolidated a clear lead of almost 2 to 1 over Astori.