MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Opinion polls anticipate Uruguayan presidential election with run-off

Current opinion polls’ tendency favour the Uruguayan opposition

The coming Uruguayan presidential election scheduled for October will be decided in a run off at the end of November according to the tendencies of the latest public opinion poll released Monday in Montevideo.

The poll from Cifra, indicates that if the election had been held last Sunday the ruling coalition would have garnered 44% of the vote, while the leading opposition National party, 36%, the junior opposition Colorados 10%, the Independents 2% and the other “big party” of undecided, 8%.

If this is confirmed at the end of October the ruling Broad Front presidential candidate would be forced to a run-off with the National party candidate since no party will be managing the 50% plus one vote demanded by Uruguayan electoral legislation.

Eduardo González from Cifra said that an October scenario under these conditions means that “a runoff in inevitable” with no clear results, although whoever wins “will be by a marginal difference, a very tight race”.

The National party is expected to count with most of the 10% from the Colorados, 2% from the Independents, and traditionally the undecided split along similar lines to the main picture.

González said that the tendency favours the National party since in four of the last five polls, beginning March, the opposition has been steadily climbing, while the ruling coalition has fallen slightly or kept its ground.

Five years ago, 2004, when the previous election, at the beginning of August, the Broad Front was leading comfortably with 49% to 51% of vote intention, while the parties of the current opposition were loosing ground.

As to the results of the recent primary elections to choose presidential tickets in the different parties, “the reading of the situation did not show any surprises”, said González from Cifra.

“The Broad Front has kept to the 43/44% of vote intention, while the National party has ranged from 34 to 39%”, he added.

The only party which has shown a clear take off is the Colorados, which from 7% now stand at 10% of vote intention and with a growing tendency.

“This can be explained because of the deep renovation and new faces that have emerged, following the disastrous electoral performance in 2004”, pointed out González.

The Colorado party which for most of Uruguay’s democratic life has been the leading political force suffered a humiliating defeat in 2004.

The latest Cifra opinion poll was done between July 25 and 29, and included 1.000 interviews.

If the poll scenario is confirmed, Jose Mujica from the ruling coalition and Luis Alberto Lacalle from the National party will be disputing the run off next November.