MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Uruguayan presidential hopefuls in their last sprint

A massive and colourful street rally in support of incumbent Mujica

In the run up to next Sunday’s general election, Uruguayan presidential candidates were involved in a flurry of political rallies in the capital Montevideo, turning the city into a stage of colourful marches and flag waving to the tune of the candidates’ jingles and musical backup.

With the purpose of avoiding unexpected crossings of the different groups local authorities in many cases re-programmed some of the marches, but overall no incidents were reported and furthermore the distribution of different manifestos and ballots was done from stands lined up along main avenues and plazas.

The last big effort is to conquer the undecided which according to the latest opinion polls could range anywhere from 9% to 14% and contrary to other electoral experience have never seen such a surge at last minute.

Apparently the many blunders from the two main candidates, the incumbent Jose Mujica from the ruling catch all coalition stretching from the conservative Christian democrats to the former radical guerrillas, and from former president Luis Alberto Lacalle, leader of the main opposition party has sparked undecided inflation.

Mujica, 74, and under much stress as a consequence of imprudent statements to the Argentine press and in a book with interviews where he opens his mind and heart, has been spending much of the time apologizing plus having to swallow comments from Uruguayan president Tabare Vazquez, “sometimes he says stupidities”.

Lacalle suffered a serious knee injury a few months ago and never completed the convalescence period with rest as recommended by his doctors. Consequently he has confessed having to take ever stronger painkillers and even infiltrations in his injured leg, which on occasions show him sleepy, distracted or with a voice resembling sins of the past when he was known to be a heavy drinker.

Under the stress of the competition of a very tight race both hopefuls have said things of which they later had to backtrack.

This has played wonderfully into the hands of Pedro Bordaberry from the Colorado Party, a non inspiring candidate who prefers to talk as a preacher but is supported in the ticket by a former Uruguayan soccer player, Hufo De León who is proving to have the captain guts he proved when playing for Uruguayan and Brazilian teams and the national squad.

Many of the votes which feel not represented or repulsed by the two main candidates are also going to the Independent party, a testimonial force that given the tight margins even with one Senator and two to three Deputies could end as king of any future coalition.

Mujica and his running mate economist Danilo Astori have according to the majority of traditional opinion polls, anywhere between 42% and 44% of vote intention. Runner ups Lacalle and Senator Jorge Larrañaga 34% to 38%; Bordaberry 12% to 15% and Independent Pablo Mireres 3% and fraction.

However MPC Consultores, a recent maverick pollster that was the most accurate in the June 28th primaries has slightly different percentages and a forecast of a clear victory for opposition candidate Lacalle at the end of November.

According to MPC, Mujica stands between 38/43%; Lacalle 35/40%, Partido Colorado, 17/20%; the Independents 3 to 4% and a radical grouping 1.2%. This means a run off is inevitable with Lacalle plus the Colorados reaching 52% to 55%, while Mujica will obtain 40% to 43%.

Under the Uruguayan electoral system the presidential candidate must garner 50% plus one vote in the first round next October 25th. If not a run off takes place a month later at the end of November. All pollsters are anticipating a second round.

However the two chamber legislative will be decided at the end of October, and unless the ruling coalition manages more than 45% of the vote, and Mujica is finally elected president, they will be forced to reach an understanding with one or several of the minorities forces.

In 2004, President Vazquez and the Broad Front did not need a run off since they managed 50.9% in the first round. He also enjoyed a clear majority in parliament.

In the scenario of a run off between Mujica and Lacalle pollsters are divided as to the outcome, or prefer not to advance an opinion. Nevertheless although all the parties closed their campaign rallies in Montevideo, officially they can continue, and will do so in the rest of the country, until Thursday 24:00 hours having to respect the 48 hours previous ban on all political activities, and media and street publicity.

More over until next Thursday the three main television channels will be presenting their final vote intentions for next Sunday and possibly end of November. This Monday begins a most hectic week ahead.