The Brazilian economy will experience a robust growth in 2010 and 2011, in the range of 4.5%, while Mexico will recover from deep recession beginning next year with a GDP expansion of 2.7% and 3.9% in 2011, according to the Organization for Economic and Development Cooperation, OECD.
Chile meantime is forecasted to grow 4.1% in 2010 and 5% the following year, following a 1.8% contraction in 2009.
Mexico is the only Latinamerican member of OECD while Brazil, Latinamerica’s largest economy and Chile are candidates to become full members of the club which brings together the world’s 30 most industrialized countries.
“Mexico has suffered its worst recession (8%) since the foreign exchange crisis of 1994”, points out OECD indicating lower oil prices, a fall in exports, the sanitary emergency with the outbreak of the A/H1N1 virus flu plus less remittances and tourism have had a devastating impact.
However things have begun to change with the recovery of the US economy and an increase in the price of oil, which have seen a “significant deceleration in the fall of economic activity and signs of recovery in some sectors”.
OECD estimates that with the fiscal stimulus, “recession bottomed out in the third quarter of 2009 and Mexico should begin growing modestly in the first quarter of 2010.
Regarding Brazil, OECD estimates strong growth in the next two years and no expansion this year. The forecast is an improvement from the previous report which was estimating a negative 0.8% in 2009 and 4% in 2010.
“Strong domestic demand boosted by flexible policies” have helped the Brazilian economy overcome the situation and as early as 2010 “the government could begin to roll back budget incentives as the economy consolidates”.
As to Chile it has suffered the impact of the collapse of world trade and commodities prices which make a small, open economy very dependent on mineral and agriculture exports, “highly vulnerable”.
OECD concludes that the Chilean economy, after suffering a contraction this year, should begin gradually to recover next year and reach above potential growth in 2011.