MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Crucial debate for the Chilean presidential run-off between Piñera and Frei

Opinion polls give billionaire Piñera the lead and Frei is not an enthusiast debater but the ruling coalition remains the leading force (although divided)

Chilean Conservative billionaire businessman Sebastián Piñera and centre-left candidate (and former president) Senator Eduardo Frei face-off this Monday evening in their first and only national debate since the December 13 first-round vote eliminated Communist Party candidate Jorge Arrate and independent candidate Marco Enriquez Ominami (MEO).

Both Piñera and Frei have targeted the 20% of the vote won by MEO, an independent 36-year-old deputy who pilloried both Piñera and Frei as “relics of the past.” MEO painted Frei as an out of touch, old-guard politico content with cutting deals with other old-guard party leaders to return in power, and Pinera as a case study of why the gap between Chile’s rich and poor is one of the most notorious in Latin America. Piñera won 45% of the vote on December 13, Frei 29% and Arrate 7%.

Still, Frei’s vote, added to the (also left of centre) Ominami and Arrate vote, totalled 55%. This is roughly the same electoral voting edge the ruling Concertación coalition (which includes the Christian Democrats, the Socialists, the Radicals and the Party for Democracy) has enjoyed since first coming to power following the October 5, 1988 plebiscite that turned former dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet out of power (44% favouring the dictator, 56% against him).

MEO’s 20% (1.5 million voters) was the largest show of support for an independent presidential candidate in modern Chilean history and was unique in that it drew strength from both the left and right sides of the political aisle.

Still, many of MEO’s more left-leaning supporters are disillusioned by 20 years often-times corrupt and self-serving Concertación-led policies and appear ready to jump ship to the Piñera campaign, notwithstanding President Michelle Bachelet’s remarkable 81% level of popular support.

MEO, who was exiled to France as a child after Pinochet-era police killed his father, a leftist opponent of the military regime, strongly opposed the HidroAysen dam project in southern Chile and the Pinochet-era privatization of Chile’s water rights.

He was also outspoken on a number of social issues, including increased funding for public schools and support for abortion and gay rights. When defeated last December 13 MEO strongly urged the current Concertacion political party leaders to step down as a response to popular demands for political change within the Concertacion leadership. Two did (the Radical Party and PPD presidents), but two did not (the Christian Democratic Party and Socialist Party presidents).

MEO, originally a Socialist, was denied an opportunity to compete against Frei in a primary election process and has especially poor relations with Socialst Party president Camilo Escalona.

Since the December vote, both Frei and Piñera have run spots that included gays in an effort to attract MEO supporters, but have not addressed environmental, decentralization and energy-related concerns raised by the independent candidate.

MEO supporters must now decide between Frei or Piñera, or abstain with a “blank vote.” MEO has indicated he will not vote for Piñera, but has disdained any outright show of support of Frei.

Still, last Friday, MEO’s stepfather, Socialist Party Sen. Carlos Ominami, endorsed Frei publicly and there are rumours that MEO may follow suit before next Sunday’s showdown vote.

“My endorsement of Sen. Frei is not an improvisation,” said Sen. Ominami. “It is the product a very deep reflection … and I am confident that those who vote for Frei will not be defrauded.” The senator also said he had advised his son about his decision to publicly support Frei.

But Sen. Ominami’s endorsement, or even one from MEO, may be too little, too late.

An Opina S.A. poll published last weekend found that Piñera holds a significant 52.9 to 47.1% advantage over Frei just six days before the Sunday, January 17 run-off vote. The poll surveyed only voters from the nation’s three largest urban areas – Santiago, Concepcion and Valparaiso - who participated in the first round December 13 vote. Still, its earlier prediction of the December 13 presidential vote was right on target so many analysts give it great credibility.

The poll numbers heighten the drama of tonight’s debate: the preposterously wealthy Pinera cannot appear triumphant, but rather humble, or lose the support of the many lower and middle class MEO followers he has attracted. And Frei must go on the offensive, dress down Piñera, and explain to voters why the governing, centre-left Concertacion coalition deserves their continued support after so many years in power.

Most commentators, however, doubt that the aging Frei has the personality or temperament to effectively torpedo the Piñera juggernaut. A Piñera victory next Sunday would bring an end to the Concertacion’s 20 years of political rule — the most successful and long-lived political coalition in Chile’s entire history.

By Steve Anderson - Santiago Times