MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Piñera leads with a slight margin in Chile’s presidential run-off next Sunday

The latest Mori poll shows Senator Frei cutting differences but still not enough

Chilean opposition conservative candidate Sebastián Piñera is poised to win, albeit by a slight margin, on next Sunday’s (Jan. 17) presidential run-off with the incumbent candidate former president Eduardo Frei, according to the latest public opinion poll released Wednesday in Santiago.

The Mori poll, which in Chile is linked to the ruling junior party Christian Democrats shows billionaire Piñera with 50.9% vote intention while Mr. Frei collects 49.1%.

The poll based on what is known as the “predictive model” makes the estimates on three main questions, plus a direct one on vote intention: “For who of the following candidates will you be voting on the presidential election second round next Sunday: Sebastián Piñera or Eduardo Frei?”

According to the support info on the poll the tight difference between the two hopefuls, 1.8 percentage points, means “the percentage can double or be annulled” and therefore leaves open a definitive forecast as to what might happen next Sunday in the voting booths.

“What is confirmed is that Mr. Frei had dramatically cut differences with Mr. Piñera” and events during the last days of the campaign, could even further diminish such gap.

However, it can be said that “Mr. Piñera has an advantage with greater chances of widening than remaining or being neutralized”, said Marta Lagos from Mori.

A vital data is what will happen with the votes of the maverick young candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami, MEO, who although a Socialist, run as an independent and harvested much dissatisfaction with the 20 years of the ruling coalition and the right-wing option.

When asked who would be Chile’s next president, 51% of interviews answered Piñera and 31% Frei, and: who would you like to see as the next president? 41% replied the conservative candidate and 35%, Senator Frei.

The complete Mori vote intention shows the candidate for the conservative coalition with 40.8% and incumbent Frei, 39.4% plus 7% that will vote blank or annul the ballot, while 12.8% said they would not vote, do not reply or simply do not know.

As to MEO votes they break up with 44% supporting Frei and 20% for Piñera. However, 21% of the votes that supported MEO in the first round last December will either vote blank or annulled and 15% does not know, does not answer or simply is not inspired by the run-off.

The poll was taken the first week of January with a plus/minus margin of 3%.