MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina’s most serious institutional crisis since 1983, but “could be for good”

Political analyst Rosendo Fraga

Argentina is going through the most serious institutional crisis since the return of democracy in 1983, according to respected political analyst and historian Rosendo Fraga. Never “have we seen such an intense clash among the three branches of government”.

Fraga also pointed out that it is the first time that a Peronist administration with a Peronist president is ruling without the control of Congress. This has never happened since General Juan Domingo Peron and his political movement emerged in the Argentine political scenario as a dominant force in the forties, seven decades ago.

“This never happened in the several periods Peron was president, during the ten and a half years of Carlos Menem and in the six and a half of the Kirchners couple, from 2003 to 2009”.

However the strategy of the Kirchner administration since December 10 has been very clear: to rule appealing to the so called “urgent and necessity decrees”, DNU when Congress does not approve what the Executive pretends, and vetoing when it sanctions something against its interests.

But the use of the DNU went into crisis last December 14 when the creation of the so called Bicentennial Fund to pay debts with Central bank reserves, and which remains unsolved.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner argues that she wants to avoid another Argentine default for which she is proposing to tap central bank reserves to pay pending debts and issue new bonds at reasonable interest rates.

The opposition and orthodox economists feel the issue is too serious for a DNU and should be discussed in Congress including a review of the 2010 budget which hides “an immense deficit” fuelled by uncontrolled spending by the Kirchners, among other things “to convince” the needed votes in both houses and provincial governments.

But the possibility of Congress rejecting the Executive veto, since March 18, is now in process, according to Fraga.

On that very day the Argentine Lower House discussed the annulment of the partial veto to the political reform sponsored by Congress. Out of 259 members, 237 were present at the session. The official Kirchner block made up of 95 seats voted against and 142 from the opposition for the annulment of the veto. Since Congressional rules demand a two thirds majority, the opposition was 16 short.

The opposition thus failed in its effort and objective, but has begun to show that the annulment of an Executive veto is not impossible, like it seemed not so long ago.

Actually, according to Fraga, Argentina is undergoing an exceptional moment regarding the independence of the three branches of government, which if seen with optimism, could help generate a favourable turn in Argentina political culture.

History is evidence that Argentine political culture so far has been unable to reach mechanisms to share power. The alliance or coalition governments fail, and when presidents do not have the whole power, imposing its dominion over Congress and the Judiciary branch, it seems that ruling Argentina can’t be achieved, but, Fraga optimistically argues that “this is what now can and should change”.

In an established and mature democracy with strong institutions the existence of conflicts and problems, which are abundant and quite serious, is not the heart of the matter but rather the accepted rules which are complied to resolve situations or address them. In Argentina on the other hand, points out Fraga, what is characteristic is the non abidance of these rules. Hopefully this could be in the process of change.