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Mockus and his “Green Tide” Upsetting Uribe-Santos Continuity in Colombia

Monday, May 3rd 2010 - 20:48 UTC
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The former mayor of Bogotá is ahead in all opinion polls The former mayor of Bogotá is ahead in all opinion polls

With less than a month for the Colombian presidential election the campaign has reaffirmed the surprising advance of what is known as the “green tide” of hopeful Antanas Mockus, who according to the latest public opinion polls figures ahead of incumbent candidate and former Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos.

Juan Manuel Santos had been comfortably ahead in all opinion polls since last February, when the Constitutional Court rejected the Referendum Bill for another re-election of President Álvaro Uribe. At that moment, an in-waiting Santos emerged as the natural successor of Uribe and presidential candidate for the ruling Social Party of National Unity (U Party).

And so it was until only a week ago when the former Defence Minister who is campaigning of the continuity of Uribe’s “democracy with security” slogan was ahead of all public opinion polls and vote intention.

Colombian voters will be going to the polls May 30, but if none of the hopefuls manages an absolute majority of votes, a run-off is scheduled for June 20 between the two candidates with most votes. However, since a week ago all opinion polls published in Bogotá indicate that Antanas Mockus (Green Party) is ahead of Santos and therefore poised to become Colombia’s next president on August 7.

According to pollster Ipsos-Napoleón Franco, the former Bogotá mayor for two periods (1995/1998 and 2001/2003) has a vote intention of 38% compared to Santos 29%; in a run off the Lithuanian descendent would manage 50% against 37% of the incumbent candidate.

Ivamer-Gallup has both candidates technically at a draw, but in the run-off Mockus and his green tide would garner 47% of the vote and Santos 42.2%.

Centro Nacional de Consultoría has Mockus with 39% and Santos 34% in the first round May 30, but in the run off the former Bogota mayor is confirmed as president with 53% against 47%.

In all polls Noemí Sanín, from the Colombian Conservative Party, figures in third place.

Categories: Politics, Latin America.

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