MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil’s tightest presidential election formally takes off this weekend

The first election that will not have Lula da Silva as the Workers Party candidate

Brazil’s most influential parties will be holding this week their national conventions, which is the previous step to the formal launching of the October presidential election campaign considered one of the tightest races in recent electoral history.

The latest opinion polls show a highly polarized scenario between former President Lula da Silva’s cabinet chief Dilma Rousseff and the former governor of the state of Sao Paulo, Jose Serra.

Ms Rousseff belonging to Lula da Silva’s Workers Party and Serra from the main opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) are technically tied at 37% vote intention support according to most polls.

In all previous elections with only four months left one of the candidates would be considered favourite, which means the current campaign has turned into one of the most unpredictable since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985.

The third candidate belongs to the Green Party and is a former Environment minister, Marina Silva who figures with 10% of vote intention and could tip the balance either way, in the coming election 3 October, with a possible run off a month later.

The Green Party is holding its convention Thursday in Brasilia when hundreds of delegates and militants are expected.

Ms Silva a convinced environmentalist of very humble background was Lula da Silva’s environment minister for six years but stepped aside following controversial development plans sponsored by Ms Rousseff in the Amazon basin.

Because of these differences Ms Silva not only joined the Green party but resigned from the Workers party of which she was one of the original militants for over three decades.

On Saturday in Salvador, capital of the state of Bahia, Serra and the PSDB will hold their national convention with the purpose of impacting in the northeast of Brazil, a very poor region that depends on the federal budget and has received massive support programs from the administration of President Lula da Silva. The region according to opinion polls shows a majority support for Ms Rousseff, Lula da Silva’s handpicked candidate.

Also on Saturday but in Brasilia, Brazil’s largest political organization the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, PMDB, will hold its convention. The conservative PMDB has rendered President Lula da Silva a crucial support in Congress and is the main ally in the ruling coalition; a coalition which Ms Rousseff is intent of keeping united.

Given all these factors and the enormous vote potential, Ms Rousseff is taking PMDB’s leader Michel Temer as vice-president candidate in her ticket.

The round of conventions ends Sunday in Brasilia with the Workers’ Party event that will make official the Rousseff-Temer ticket and confirm the PT/PMDB electoral alliance.

Apparently President Lula da Silva will be present at the convention. With a sustained support over 80%, the Brazilian president is trying to transfer to her former cabinet chief his undeniable popularity thus guaranteeing the continuity of a project initiated in 2003 when the former firebrand union leader was first elected.

Next October presidential election will also be the first that does not have Lula da Silva as presidential hopeful. Lula da Silva was a candidate in 1989, 1994 and 1998 and finally won in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006. However he constitutionally is barred from a third consecutive period.

The president has anticipated he could be running again but in 2014, when Brazil will be hosting the next World Cup.